[Analysis: Iran war triggers surge in U.S. stock market 'crash probability,' hedge funds ramp up short positions] According to Jintou's report, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni has raised the probability of a market crash for the remainder of this year from 20% to 35%, citing the escalating Iran war's impact on global markets. These adjustments reflect growing market concerns: the ongoing Middle East conflict, coupled with inflationary pressures, will squeeze household spending, erode corporate profit margins, and complicate the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs data shows that hedge funds are increasing bearish bets on U.S. stocks at a pace rarely seen in the past five years. During the week ending March 6, hedge funds boosted short positions in stock exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by 8.3%. Goldman Sachs noted that with little sign of easing tensions in the Middle East, fast-money investors are intensifying their bearish bets on U.S. stocks, anticipating that the market will face further pain.