"Those who say AI foam must have the opposite conclusion" -14 judgments of an AI investor in Silicon Valley @FinanceYF5 March 2026 A few days ago, I had dinner with a friend who had just flown back from Hong Kong to Silicon Valley. As soon as he landed, he made an appointment with me. This person is quite unique. He has been in the cryptocurrency industry for a long time, telling people about Bitcoin when it was less than a dollar. Later, he settled down in Silicon Valley and started investing in AI. In his own words, he is someone who runs between the cryptocurrency and AI circles - flying to Asia at least twice a year, and every time he comes back, he has a lot of emotions. But this time is different. He used to come back to share opportunities with me, but this time he came back to roast to me. I talked to a group of people in Hong Kong and my biggest feeling is that everyone's judgment is wrong. It's not just one or two people's fault, it's a systematic mistake I asked him what he meant. Do you know what's the most outrageous thing? I talked to someone about AI all night and finally found out that he doesn't know what Anthropic is. He didn't even know that Anthropic and Claude were the same company. This person is not stupid. He works as a fund manager in Hong Kong and manages a lot of money. But he just doesn't know. " It's not his problem. He's in that position and can't receive these messages. The people around him don't know either. You're in an environment where nobody knows, how could you possibly know He talked a lot about this meal from evening until early morning. Here are the things I remember. 1、 When Bitcoin was a penny, no one listened to me He talked about the early days of Bitcoin more than once. I feel that this matter has had a great impact on him - not because of how much money he earned, but because of the experience of 'I saw it but no one believed it', which is now back. When Bitcoin was one cent old, I told people everywhere that you should buy it. No one paid attention to me. When it reached one dollar, no one paid attention. When it reached ten dollars, some people started to say, 'Isn't it interesting?' When it reached one hundred dollars, the first wave of people came. When it reached one thousand dollars, everyone lined up to come in Do you know how many times it is to go from one cent to one thousand? Ten thousand times. But most people only come in at one thousand yuan or even higher. Did they make money? Yes. But compared to one cent entering the market, it's several orders of magnitude behind AI is now at the stage of Bitcoin's one cent phase. Anthropic is currently valued at 350 billion yuan, do you think it's expensive? When it reaches 1 trillion or even higher, looking back at 350 billion is like looking back at a penny of Bitcoin. " "But when you tell people in Hong Kong about this, their reaction is exactly the same as when I told them about Bitcoin - they think you are talking in your sleep." I earned hundreds of times in the cryptocurrency circle. Now I'm back in the AI circle again. And this time it's more certain - because in the early days of Bitcoin, you couldn't see revenue, it's just a concept, you have to trust it. AI is different, it has real income, real customers, and real products. You can open Claude and use it to find out. This is not faith, it is experience. " So this time I'm more anxious than before. Because the opportunity is more certain, but the people around me still can't see it 2、 Asia's understanding of AI is at least two years worse than Silicon Valley's He said it wasn't the first time he had this feeling, but it was particularly strong this time. I travel to Asia at least twice a year. From April last year to now, it has been almost a year. The development speed of AI in Silicon Valley is very fast, but in Asia... there is also talk about AI, but no one can talk to you about the true depth. Still playing with that old logic - what opportunities do you have? Can I bring it over at a lower cost? " How big is the gap? At least 24 months. And these 24 months are not something that you can catch up with just by listening to me once. From when you hear something, to when you truly understand it, to when you start investing, it takes at least a year in between This is the same thing as when I talked about Bitcoin everywhere. At that time, Bitcoin was only a penny, and I told everyone that they should buy it. Everyone thought I was sick. Then when it reached one yuan, they still thought I was sick. When it reached one hundred yuan, people started asking me how to buy it. When it reached one thousand yuan, someone really started to take action There was a gap of three years between when I planted grass and when they started working. Why is it three years? Because people have to wait until the wealth effect comes out to react. One of my junior sisters at Tsinghua, who works as a fund manager, told me two years ago, 'I didn't know about Bitcoin before, but now I know.' I said, 'You don't know about Bitcoin anymore, you just saw it rise.' AI is currently at this stage. Those who truly understand have already made money, but most people have not yet realized it. When OpenAI goes public this year and the wealth effect starts, people will think that 1 trillion yuan is not expensive and 1.5 trillion yuan is not expensive - but by then, the fattest part will have passed. "