Did you find this tweet on Monday, as well as last Sunday's https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/20278888886207348870? The big logic discussed in the tweet s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A is still valid after a week: 1. Khamenei is dead, but the situation is far from over, and maybe it will be even more severe in the future? Because more hawkish individuals in Iran come to power to command; 2. After the death of Khamenei, a new supreme leader was elected, and the former Iranian regime should be led by three lines. Administrative level, highest strategic level, military and national security level. At the administrative level, they can only speak out and have no say in the military or national security. At the military and national security levels, two hardliners, Secretary General of the Supreme National Security Council Larijani and newly appointed Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Wahidi, are leading the way; 3. We should attach importance to Iran's mosaic defense model and asymmetric warfare theory. The Iranian counterattack and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz this time are actually manifestations of asymmetric warfare; 4. The suspension of flights in the Strait of Hormuz is a key factor in the impact of the Iran situation on the global market. If the Iranian side does not stop, the long-term substantial suspension of the Strait of Hormuz, if suspended for more than a week, is likely to cause concern in the market. The 'duration' of conflict has replaced the 'outbreak itself' as the core variable determining the direction of crude oil, gold, and US stocks. The duration of the conflict is still focused on the Strait of Hormuz; The Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal, oil prices continue to rise, and the risk market continues to be under pressure. 5. Possible outcomes of the future situation: The suboptimal outcome strongly pressured Iran's new leader to reach an agreement: completely scrap Iran's nuclear process and limit the range of ballistic missiles; The worst outcome is that Iran will not be discussed, and the United States and Israel will not deploy ground forces. Only airstrikes will be carried out, although Iran will be dealt with in a scattered manner, but a hundred legged worm will die without stopping, continuing to attack oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The future outcome trend is likely to fall between the suboptimal and worst outcomes 6. A new logic has emerged today: https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2030125876462137786? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， Trump redefined "unconditional surrender", then is it possible for Trump to declare victory unilaterally and then stop acting? stand a good chance. If Trump stops, will Iran help? Most likely, it will too. The United States has stopped harassing oil tankers, and Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is actually meaningless. Instead, it is becoming an enemy of the Gulf. If the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal in the future, the current concerns and worries of everyone will be quickly reset.