星球日报
星球日报|Mar 06, 2026 07:03
Economist: In addition to non farm payroll data tonight, we also need to pay attention to the annual population adjustment of the Labor Bureau Odaily Planet Daily News: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release new population control data that was delayed last year due to a 43 day government shutdown. Eglhoff, Chief US Economist at BNP Paribas, stated that the latest data from the Census Bureau shows that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been overestimating population growth since the end of 2024. It is expected that in the adjusted January data, the population aged 16 and above will be reduced by about 590000, the labor force will be reduced by about 370000, and the number of employed people in household surveys will also be similarly reduced. Using a smoothed experimental sequence of past population control and immigration data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, combined with the latest census data, it is estimated that the labor force in the United States will only grow by 900000 in 2025, and the overall labor force growth is expected to be much lower than 500000 in 2026. The population control adjustment will only affect the household survey data for January. This means that the month on month data for indicators such as household employment, unemployment, and labor force will not be directly comparable. Mishra, an economist at Bank of America Securities, said that the good news is that key ratios (unemployment rate and labor force participation rate) are usually minimally affected. Last year, population control adjustments increased both ratios by 0.1 percentage points, but this year's risk is that new control adjustments may slightly decrease both ratios. (Golden Ten)
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