MVRV Extreme Deviation: Probability Boundary of Bear Market Rebound In addition to referring to BRS signals, I will also pay special attention to the "MVRV extreme deviation pricing range" during bear market daily rebounds, which is also a reference indicator that has shown high effectiveness in historical samples. The so-called limit deviation is actually the "degree of dispersion" in mathematical statistics. Under the assumption of normal distribution, the standard deviation can correspond to a probability interval. From the data of the past 10 years: (Figure 1- MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Range - Overview) 1. When BTC falls below the yellow line, it indicates that the market has entered the first stage of a bear market. After that, it is difficult for the daily level rebound to break through the yellow line again, or there may be a slight breakthrough before falling again, which confirms this signal. (As shown in the picture in 2018) 2. When BTC falls below the green line, it indicates that the market has entered the second stage of the bear market. Similarly, it is difficult for the rebound to break through the green line again until it exits the bear bottom range. (As shown in the figure for 2014 and 2022) (Figure 2- MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Interval -2026) On January 14, 2026, BTC rebounded to $97000 and encountered resistance at the yellow line; At that time, when we combined the BRS signal and it had returned to zero, we were even more convinced that this was the high point of the rebound. The relevant tweet link is as follows: https://(x.com)/Murphychen888/status/2012016759143088416 (Figure 3- Bitcoin Risk Signal) And this rebound reached its highest closing price of $72691 on March 4th, which is infinitely close to the position of the green line, while BRS has not yet returned to zero. My personal opinion on this is: 1. Even if this rebound has not yet ended, it should be close to the top range; 2. The approximate prediction for the interval is around $74000- $78000; But there is also a most special situation that needs to be considered: Currently, BTC has not fallen below the "historical average turnover cost of BTC" of "<10y_RP", which is closer to the true level. The relevant tweet link is as follows: https://(x.com)/Murphychen888/status/2021428471864660286 That is to say, as long as it does not fall below the limit of "<10y_RP", there is still a possibility of taking the "shallow bear path". Therefore, the special circumstances we need to consider are: If BTC breaks through the green line ($74000) in the "MVRV extreme deviation pricing range" strongly this time and does not fall below it in subsequent retracements, then it will be another conclusion - the probability of BTC breaking out of the bear bottom has increased. Of course, currently I believe that the likelihood of scenario 3 is relatively low, while scenarios 1 and 2 are still events with a higher probability. (Note: Personal opinions cannot be guaranteed to be 100% correct. Please interpret them rationally!)