Bitcoin.不求人|Mar 06, 2026 03:18
I don't know if you have heard of a saying that goes, 'Wealth in life depends on health waves.'.
This sentence comes from Zhou Jintao, former chief economist of CITIC Securities.
He once said that 85% of how much wealth an ordinary person can accumulate in their lifetime depends on the economic cycle, and only 15% depends on personal ability.
For example, the post-70s generation, who bought a house casually from 2000 to 2010, can now have a net worth of millions.
But for those born in the 1980s and 1990s who also work hard to save money, housing prices have risen faster than wages, and no matter how hard they try, they cannot catch up.
This is not a matter of ability, but a problem of the times.
Zhou Jintao accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis and 2015 stock market crash based on his research on the Kangbo cycle.
He said that ordinary people only have about three opportunities in their lifetime to truly change their destiny through wealth.
The key is whether you can hit that rhythm accurately.
He made a very famous statement in 2016:
Wealth in life depends on Kangbo. 2019 is the first opportunity for people born in 1985, and the last opportunity for those over 40 years old is around 2030
So what is the Kangbo cycle?
Simply put, the global economy experiences a major cycle of fluctuations every 50 to 60 years.
This theory was first proposed by Soviet economist Kondratiev in 1925. He studied over a hundred years of economic data and found that every technological revolution would bring about a major reshuffle of wealth.
Since the steam engine revolution in 1782, humanity has gone through five such cycles.
In each cycle, a new group of wealthy people is born, while an old group of wealthy people is eliminated.
The first time was in the steam engine and textile industry, which made Britain the world's factory.
The second time was with railways and steel, and the United States began to rise.
The third time is for electricity and automobiles, with General Electric's stock increasing tenfold in 20 years.
The fourth time is about oil and consumer society, with real estate becoming the protagonist.
In the fifth round, which we have just experienced, the core is the information technology revolution.
From 1991 to 2000, the Internet took off and the NASDAQ index rose 49 times.
From 2001 to 2008, after China's accession to the WTO, housing prices increased tenfold in a decade.
After 2009, smartphones became popular and the digital economy exploded.
But by 2020, this round of dividends had basically been exhausted.
You will find that especially in the years after 2020, it has been particularly difficult.
But it's not that you're not working hard, it's that the entire technological dividend is declining, the old growth engine is stalling, and the new one hasn't fully started yet.
This is the characteristic of a recession.
But the key point is that in 2026, the sixth Kangbo cycle is about to begin.
The core driving forces this time are artificial intelligence, new energy, and biotechnology.
These three things will completely change the world, just like the steam engine, electricity and the Internet.
You may say, haven't AI and new energy already existed?
Yes, but previously it was a stage of technological accumulation, and now it is the eve of commercialization explosion.
For example, in 2025, the average monthly salary for AI positions is 61800 yuan, and algorithm engineers can earn 71000 yuan.
The industry of optical modules, which provide accessories for AI servers, is expected to grow by 120% in 2026. The energy storage industry can grow by over 80% due to the high power consumption of AI data centers.
These numbers mean that if you are around 30 years old now, the next ten years will be the most critical period of wealth accumulation in your life.
Because the rebound period of each cycle is the stage with the lowest participation threshold and the largest growth space for ordinary people.
Waiting until the prosperous period to enter the market will increase costs and risks.
In other words, the decade from 2026 to 2035 is your biggest window of opportunity.
But how should ordinary people catch it? I think there are three directions to consider.
The first dimension is asset allocation.
Many people only deposit money in banks or for wealth management, but the performance of assets varies greatly in different cycles.
During a recession, holding cash and gold is most suitable. For example, from 2001 to 2011, gold rose from $255 to $1921, an increase of more than six times.
But if you're trading stocks during a recession, it's basically a waste of time.
The rebound period and the boom period are exactly the opposite, with cash depreciating and stocks, especially technology stocks, skyrocketing.
From 1982 to 2004, the annualized return rate of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 11.42%. If you only take cash, it is equivalent to losing money.
So after 2026, it is necessary to move assets onto the technology track.
The second dimension is career choice.
If you are still young or considering a career change, you must lean towards the track of the new cycle.
The AI field is currently facing a severe shortage of personnel, with positions such as algorithm engineers, AI product managers, and AI application developers offering salary premiums of over 20%.
The same goes for new energy, where salaries in energy storage system design, photovoltaic technology, and lithium battery materials are all on the rise.
But you may say, my current job has nothing to do with these, how can I switch?
Don't rush to bare your words, use a three-step strategy: first stabilize your main business, and learn the basic knowledge of AI or new energy in your spare time.
When you can start doing some side projects, such as developing an AI application or providing new energy consulting services to small and medium-sized enterprises, and your side income can reach 30% of your main business, then consider changing jobs.
The third dimension is skill investment.
Many people think that learning is a cost, but in fact, learning is the most cost-effective investment.
Allocate 5% to 10% of your monthly income to learn AI, programming, and data analysis.
This money may not seem like much, but the long-term return rate is higher than buying a house.
Because skills are assets that follow you, houses may still depreciate, but what you learn will not.
2026 is a watershed year.
Looking ahead five years, it is the depression period of the fifth cycle, and looking back ten years, it is the recovery period of the sixth cycle.
The choices you make now will determine the growth rate of your wealth in the next ten years.
So don't complain about the unfairness of the times anymore. The times are indeed unfair, but the laws are open.
True freedom is to understand the cycle and choose to follow the trend.
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