金十数据|3月 05, 2026 11:26
[Energy Shock Rekindles UK Inflation Concerns, Market Sharply Revises BOE Rate Cut Expectations]
Jin10 News, March 5 – Stefan Koopman of Rabobank stated in a report that the surge in oil and gas prices triggered by the Middle East conflict has raised inflation concerns and reduced market expectations for a near-term rate cut by the Bank of England (BOE). He noted: "By mid-year, the energy shock could easily contribute about 65 basis points to UK inflation."
According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the currency market currently estimates a 24% probability of a BOE rate cut in March, compared to 83% before the conflict began. Meanwhile, the market has only fully priced in one rate cut for the entirety of 2026.
Koopman said: "If the energy shock persists in the coming weeks and months, UK inflation will not fall to 2%." He believes this could hinder the BOE from cutting rates, even if the unemployment rate rises further.
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