Elon Musk Remakes Capital Myth? SpaceX IPO Approaching, Stock Price Fluctuations May Be More Fierce than Tesla Over the past few years, as SpaceX has gradually transformed into a giant in the aerospace industry, market interest in it has grown exponentially. But investors should expect that the stock price may experience drastic fluctuations after its public listing. According to Bloomberg, SpaceX may secretly submit an IPO application as early as this month and seek a valuation of over $1.75 trillion. The company plans to conduct an IPO in June, which may coincide with Musk's birthday or a rare planetary encounter. SpaceX, headquartered in Starbase, Texas, USA, is expected to be valued at approximately $1.25 trillion after acquiring Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI. PitchBook analyst Franco Granda wrote in a report on Tuesday that SpaceX's stock performance after going public will be similar to Tesla's (TSLA. O) stock, but with greater volatility. Future growth expectations: Starlink will contribute its main revenue. PitchBook predicts that SpaceX's revenue will reach $150 billion by 2040, with adjusted profits reaching $95 billion. By comparison, the company's highest revenue last year was about $16 billion, with a profit of about $8 billion. In the future, the annual revenue of about $42 billion may come from Starlink satellite Internet business, which currently contributes most of SpaceX's cash flow. This prediction does not include xAI business. XAI currently has a fast cash consumption rate, but may obtain more projects from the US Department of Defense in the future. This prediction also assumes that Tesla and SpaceX will not merge, although Musk and some analysts have previously raised this possibility. Elon Musk wrote on the X platform in November last year: "My company, surprisingly, is moving towards integration to some extent." The Musk effect: vision driven but often delayed timelines. Granda said that many lessons learned by investors from Tesla may also apply to SpaceX. For example, both companies have been influenced by Musk's famous public optimism. Granda cited an example that Tesla had promised to produce 5000 cars per week by the end of 2017, but subsequently fell into a "production hell" and failed to achieve the goal. However, when the company finally achieved this milestone in mid-2018, the stock price surged significantly. SpaceX has also experienced similar delays. The development of its Starship super rocket has encountered multiple setbacks, and other spacecraft projects in the company's history have also experienced similar situations. Musk once set 2022 as the "ideal goal" for sending unmanned missions to Mars, but by 2026, this mission will still take several years to achieve. However, investors have gradually become accustomed to Musk's schedule having a certain degree of "flexibility". Therefore, when the December deadline for the autonomous taxi project passed, investors did not panic excessively. Later, when Musk achieved his set goals later, the stock price rose accordingly. Granda refers to this phenomenon as the 'credit ledger', where investors automatically include delay factors in their expectations but focus more on the overall vision. This may be beneficial for SpaceX. The company has recently postponed its Mars colonization plan and has also applied to regulatory agencies to launch up to one million space data centers into orbit, which relies on the progress of the Starship project. SpaceX currently plans to build a city on the moon. Post IPO challenges: higher volatility and high dependence on Musk, but as a publicly traded company, SpaceX still needs to achieve these goals when facing Wall Street investors, while continuing to make progress in the xAI and Starlink businesses. Therefore, the market reaction may be very intense. Granda predicts that if certain major news typically only triggers a 10% to 15% fluctuation in Tesla's stock price, it may trigger a 20% to 30% fluctuation in SpaceX's stock. This is partly due to SpaceX's expected publicly traded share ratio of only about 3.3%. SpaceX stocks may also benefit from the so-called 'Musk premium'. Despite the decline in Tesla's core electric vehicle business, this premium still helps maintain its stock price at a high level. But this halo also means that Musk's companies rely heavily on him. Kanto Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard previously stated, "More than 50% of shareholders now believe that Tesla is Elon, and Elon is Tesla. Many people, perhaps even the majority, directly link Tesla's success to Elon's tenure." Tesla also mentioned the company's dependence on Musk in its annual report and warned that if Musk is forced to sell some of his shares, the stock price may fall. SpaceX was founded by Elon Musk more than 20 years ago, and he currently holds about 44% of the company's shares. His dependence on the CEO may also be high. Granda stated that negative news from Tesla is likely to put pressure on SpaceX's stock price, and vice versa. Meanwhile, Musk's political stance has also sparked controversy and affected Tesla's sales. Granda concluded, "The combination of lower proportion of outstanding shares, earlier stage technology, and highly concentrated Musk risk exposure means that its volatility may exceed Tesla's already quite intense volatility patterns in history