常为希 |AI之道|Mar 04, 2026 09:13
In March 2026, as the escalation of the Iran Israel conflict pushed up the energy premium, the South Korean semiconductor sector (represented by EWY), as well as Samsung and Hynix, once again faced emotional selling of energy crisis under the "Hormuz Black Swan" narrative. This should be a golden pit for Samsung Hynix, clearing leverage and emotions without changing fundamental needs. The reasons are as follows.
The complete official data for South Korea's LNG imports in 2025 was just released by MEES (Middle East Economic Survey) at the end of January based on South Korean customs/KOGAS/KESIS, with a record total import of 46.72 million tons (+1% YoY).
Australia: 14.68 million tons (historical high,+29%), accounting for 31.4% (new high, excluding the main route of Hormuz).
Qatar (via Hormuz): 6.97 million tons (-22%, 16 year low), Middle East/MENA share continues to decline significantly.
The overall rate of the route to avoid Hormuz remains above 80% (including Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, the United States, and Russia), and the proportion of long-term contracts remains high (there is no exact figure for 2025, but the trend is consistent with 82% in 2024).
It can be seen that the "energy firewall" rapidly constructed by South Korea since the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 is effective -80% LNG import bypass, 82% long-term contract locking, and multiple sources (Australia, the United States, Indonesia, and Russia together account for more than 60%) - has effectively transferred potential cost shocks to AI superscalers, rather than its own OPEX.
SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, as global HBM/DRAM/Nand duopoly monopolies, benefit from the structural demand for AI computing power (the resurgence of pre order phenomenon), and their pricing power and capacity expansion far exceed short-term fluctuations in crude oil/LNG; Entering a true upward phase, the market's estimated huge profit buffer for 2028 highlights the overwhelming advantage of the "demand black hole" on the supply side. A few reminders about bottlenecks such as helium are worth being wary of, but they are supply chain details rather than systemic risks.
Since the Russo Ukrainian War in 2022, South Korea's energy firewall (diversification+long-term contract+government buffer) has proven resilience, and panic selling similar to DeepSeek Nvidia often serves as a deleveraging window rather than a logical reversal.
In the long run, the geopolitical independence of AI computing power demand far exceeds the sensitivity to energy fluctuations: South Korean semiconductors are not "energy fragile bodies", but "beneficiaries of rigid demand".
In the long run, this once again confirms that the assessment of the geopolitical resilience of the AI industry chain must go beyond index weights and headline narratives: what truly determines victory or defeat are contract lock-in, diversified execution, and downstream demand stickiness. Investors should prioritize data logic during periods of high volatility - as South Korean semiconductor has proven through practical actions, strategic foresight is better able to ride through black swans than panic reactions. Short term geopolitical fluctuations may push up spot prices, but long-term contracts and diversification make the fundamentals of the Korean semiconductor sector unwavering. This wave of correction is still an emotional clearing, looking forward to future performance, hoping to create a golden pit for the memory HBM industry.
Samsung SKhynix
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