NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on inflation, there are “some encouraging trends” including no significant second-round effects on tariffs, no supply-chain bottlenecks, stable wage growth, inflation expectations that are consistent with the Fed’s target, and underlying inflation ex-imported goods “moving in the right direction.” Fed policy is “well positioned” and if inflation follows “the path I expect,” then further rate cuts “will eventually be warranted.”(Nick Timiraos)