比特傻
比特傻|Mar 03, 2026 12:29
Hynix " Currently, analysts in the AI industry More and more opinions suggest that the importance of HBM is gradually surpassing that of GPU This has led to the popularity of Hynix as the leader of HBM. Silly brother also shared his core judgment about Hynix: Core judgment: 1. A milestone in the transformation of storage from traditional strong cyclical fluctuations to structural growth driven by artificial intelligence (AI). 2. Thanks to HBM, Hynix has finally surpassed Samsung with its high bandwidth memory (HBM) Long Yi. 3. The explosion of this profitability is mainly attributed to the high bandwidth storage (HBM) in the product portfolio The proportion of DRAM has significantly increased, and there is strong demand for high-end traditional DRAM (such as DDR5) in the server market. 4. High profit certainty: SK Hynix's performance growth in 2026 and 2027 is almost certain, as its HBM production capacity is already on track Already pre booked by giants such as Nvidia and Google 5. Deep technical barriers: Currently, its advantage in 1cnm process and MR-MUF packaging is at least 6-9 months ahead of its competitors 6. Industry structure change: The storage industry is shifting from a game cycle to game technology, and Hynix has successfully achieved the transformation from a second tier manufacturer to a global player The magnificent transformation of core suppliers of AI computing infrastructure 7. At a unit price of 1.1 million, but if the profit can exceed 100 trillion Korean won as scheduled in 2026, SK Hynix still has the characteristics of a "defensive growth stock". 8. The popularity of large video models will stimulate the demand for high bandwidth storage. 9. Although Micron obtained some Nvidia orders during the HBM3E era, it encountered validation bottlenecks in the development of HBM4, especially in its own production Poor performance in thermal management and pin speed of the main design's Base Die 10. Looking up, the extreme foam of 1.5 million yuan or even 1.7 million yuan is still supported by Nvidia's strong financial report; Looking down, if the logic is falsified, cutting back to 500000 to 800000 Korean won is also a very fast process of retreat. risk 1. The moat has been breached: Samsung suddenly solved its heat dissipation and packaging problems, entering the Nvidia supply chain with huge production capacity, directly triggering the HBM price war. 2. Macro recession backlash: A global macroeconomic hard landing has led to cloud giants significantly reducing traditional server and enterprise IT spending, even though they are still buying AI servers, resulting in severe losses to Hynix's basic infrastructure. 3. Geopolitical black swan: significant changes in embargo policies for semiconductor equipment, or worsening geopolitical situations in East Asia that disrupt supply chains. Taking into account all factors, silly brother first built a small base warehouse.
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