Wintermute: If the conflict persists, risk assets such as cryptocurrencies may continue to be under pressure According to a market analysis report released by Wintermute on March 3rd, the military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran have triggered market risk aversion, causing Bitcoin prices to drop to $63000 at one point before rebounding to around $67000. The military operation codenamed "Epic Fury" began last Saturday evening, targeting Iranian military facilities and reportedly resulting in the death of Iran's top leader and senior officials. The conflict has lasted for three days, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and the airspace in the Gulf region closed. The conflict is escalating rather than easing. Macro pressure continues to increase: oil prices soar by 9%, once exceeding $80; Analysts have raised their Brent crude oil forecast to $100; The price of gold is close to $5400, and its market value has increased by about $1 trillion within a few hours; The stock market opened sharply lower, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 500 points at one point; The VIX panic index has reached its highest level since 2026. In terms of the cryptocurrency market, although ETFs saw an inflow of over $1 billion last week, ending five consecutive weeks of capital outflows, there is still a net outflow of about $4.5 billion from the beginning of the year, and institutional over-the-counter trading activity remains significantly sluggish. The volatility indicator DVOL has surged from the range of 30-40 to around 55, and the options market expects a daily volatility of 2.5-3%. Wintermute analysis suggests that if the conflict persists and leads to high energy prices, it may keep inflation high, delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and thus create broader pressure on risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.