Wintermute: Despite a brief rebound on Monday, the market remains fragile and caution is advised BlockBeats News: On March 3rd, Wintermute released market views stating that the geopolitical conflict in Iran has led to significant volatility in risk assets. For cryptocurrencies, the weekend's decline digested the first wave of geopolitical panic, while the rebound was due to the market believing that Bitcoin had fallen 45% from its historical high, with most of the losses being absorbed by the market. But the impact of energy factors has been underestimated. The sustained high oil prices may keep inflation high, and central banks around the world had hoped for inflation to cool down, which could further delay the US interest rate cut. Cryptocurrencies are at a disadvantage in this game. Although ETFs have recently returned, based on the current trading situation, institutional participation is significantly lower than the trading range of $85000 to $95000 between November last year and September this year. At that time, institutional trading was more active, especially when prices were falling. Nowadays, at the current price point, there is a clear lack of buying interest. The market appears to be very fragile. Finally, altcoins continue to follow a typical bear market pattern, as positive returns are very short-lived and investors lack the willingness to chase excess returns, making it unlikely for most altcoins to experience a more sustained upward trend. Wintermute believes that despite a brief rebound in cryptocurrency on Monday, the market remains fragile and volatility is once again on the rise. In the current situation where the growth risk premium continues to rise and the Federal Reserve is unable to intervene, cryptocurrency, as a high beta growth asset, continues to be under pressure. The outflow of ETF funds (although temporarily interrupted) confirms this point. This is the recent reality. Wintermute suggests that investors should be cautious at present. The focus of market attention is mainly on conflict news, especially any progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz or easing hostilities. If the conflict persists beyond expectations, rising energy costs may reshape interest rate expectations and put widespread pressure on risk assets.