Deutsche Bank: Bank of England's March interest rate cut may be affected by energy prices

Deutsche Bank analyst Sanjay Raja pointed out in a report that if energy prices remain at current levels, the pace of the Bank of England's March interest rate cut may slow down, and policymakers need to consider the impact of rising energy prices on inflation expectations. The next interest rate cut to 3.5% may be postponed to the second quarter of this year, and the last interest rate cut may be postponed to the fourth quarter. If energy prices rise to $100 per barrel, the next interest rate cut may be postponed to the second half of 2026, and the endpoint interest rate may rise to 3.5%. If commodity prices fall, the Bank of England may maintain Deutsche Bank's benchmark expectation and reach the endpoint interest rate of 3.25% through two interest rate cuts.