HTX DeepThink: Credit Cracks or Policy Shifts? The liquidity sequence game will determine the next major market trend DeepTide TechFlow News, March 3rd, Chloe (@ ChloeTalk1), a columnist of HTX DeepThink and researcher of HTX Research, pointed out that the real focus of macro pricing this week is not "whether there is a foam in the market", but the sequence of liquidity and credit pressure: whether the credit chain cracks first or the Federal Reserve Bank of America turns ahead of the pressure diffusion. This sequence will determine whether the next stage of Bitcoin market will experience a sharp fluctuation of "liquidation first and then rescue the market", or continue to fluctuate under the suppression of high interest rates. First of all, the Beige Book published early this Thursday will provide real feedback from enterprises, focusing on orders, financing environment, employment and price transmission. If the report presents "Demand is weakening but wages and prices are still sticky", which means that the high real interest rate may last longer, which suppresses the special currency from the perspective of valuation; If more regions report an increase in layoffs, tightening financing, and easing price pressure, it will strengthen the expectation of slowing growth and open a time window for policy easing. The Challenger layoffs data and initial jobless claims announced on the same evening are forward-looking indicators for the labor market. If layoffs and initial applications show a clear increase, it usually means that credit pressure has begun to spread to the real economy. At the same time, the import price index will affect the direction of inflation expectations. If import prices rebound, it will compress policy space; If prices fall and employment weakens, a combination of "cooling growth and easing inflation" is formed, which is conducive to the market trading loose expectations in advance. Friday's unemployment rate and non farm employment data are the final confirmation of the above signals: if employment significantly weakens, it will increase the probability of policy shift; if employment remains strong and wages remain firm, the high real interest rate environment may continue. In the scenario of "credit first rupture", high-yield bond spreads widen, financing costs rise, and the market's demand for cash will overwhelm everything. Bitcoin, as an all-weather liquid asset, is often sold first in the early stages of pressure to exchange for the US dollar, and there may be a rapid pullback of more than 20% in the short term, accompanied by negative capital rates, decreased open interest contracts, ETFs. Characteristics such as continuous outflow and slowing supply of stablecoins. On the contrary, if the weakening of data leads to market expectations of loose policies and a decline in actual returns, Bitcoin is more likely to become a high beta liquidity trading tool, with a rebound pace usually faster than traditional risk assets, and even rushing ahead before policies are truly implemented. From the current environment, the overall trend is neutral and bearish: actual returns are still high, ETF funds continue to flow out, stablecoin scale growth is slowing down, and there is no clear signal of liquidity release yet. The market is more like waiting for a catalyst. The combination of this week's data will determine whether Bitcoin will experience risk before pricing or enter a liquidity driven upward phase ahead of schedule. The next major market trend is essentially a game of liquidity order. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.