Analysis: If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a long time, the global economy may usher in a 'deterministic recession' According to Golden Finance, the new conflict that has erupted within Iran, as well as the regime's retaliatory attacks across the Middle East, have once again pushed the Strait of Hormuz to the center of concerns about decline. Analysts warn that even partial or long-term disruptions in oil supply could lead to a global economic downturn. With the weekend attacks, experts warn that triple digit crude oil prices may just be the tip of the iceberg of global concerns. If the strait is closed for a long enough time, the global economy will inevitably suffer a blow. Bob McNally, founder of Lapidan Energy Group and former energy advisor to the Bush administration, said on Saturday, "The long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a deterministic recession in the global economy Not only oil is affected. According to the Energy Information Administration, approximately one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade will pass through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024, making it one of the most critical nodes in the global energy system. At present, most banks and analysts consider the further surge in oil prices or the forced closure of the strait as a relatively low probability risk. For example, Citigroup stated in a report on Monday that the probability of oil prices reaching $120 is only 20%. Analysts also pointed out that Iran faces logistical difficulties in implementing and maintaining the blockade, including the US military advantage in the region and the risk of losing allies by cutting off energy supplies. In addition, the threat of closure is not new for Iran, as it has threatened multiple times in the past but has never actually implemented it.