[Risk Aversion and Supply Panic Overlap, Oil Price Volatility Significantly Expands] Reported by Jinse Finance, the main contracts of SC crude oil and fuel oil hit the upper limit at the opening of the morning session. According to a research report by Chuangyuan Futures, the core driver of the increase lies in geopolitics. In early February, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks began, with the U.S. intensifying military deployments and economic sanctions alongside diplomatic mediation, adding approximately $5 per barrel in geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. Last Thursday, the third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks failed again on nuclear issues. On the 28th, the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, and Iran immediately announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran situation escalated from high-pressure confrontation to substantive conflict, with risk aversion and supply panic overlapping, significantly expanding oil price volatility. In the short term, the situation remains unclear. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the conflict and the extent of actual supply disruptions. Oil prices are expected to remain in a state of high volatility at elevated levels. The turning point lies in the "disproving of expectations," meaning that if the conflict de-escalates or the blockade of the strait does not materialize, the previously priced-in risk premium will quickly be reversed. In the long term, although the geopolitical weight has significantly increased, the fundamental issue of supply surplus remains unchanged. Therefore, after experiencing disturbances, oil prices still face downward pressure toward their central level. (This content and viewpoint are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.) (Jin10)