Once CPI and PPI are released, the street is VERY ACCURATE at taking that raw data and re-weighting it for PCE. PCE uses the same raw inputs as CPI and PPI (some PPI categories are included in PCE), but with different weightings. I plugged in 3.1% for January YoY core PCE into the chart below (from the table in the repost), and it shows YoY core PCE is now running 0.6% ABOVE YoY Core CPI. It is very close to a 40+ year extreme. --- The joke for decades was that the Fed preferred PCE over CPI simply because PCE was typically a lower inflation measure (red bars, bottom panel). The only time this spread flipped to positive (green bars, bottom panel) was in the aftermath of a recession, which was attributed to distortions from the previous recession. Now this spread is flipping again, meaning the Feds' preferred inflation measure is getting WORSE relative to the public's preferred infaltion measure (CPI). --- This is why the Fed is adamant about not cutting rates anytime soon. The measure they watch is going north, as the measure the public watches is going south. Question? Does the Fed now abandon decades of precedent with its PCE inflation target of 2% because it has become inconvenient? It would not be the first time they have done this, especially around inflation measures (see how quickly the Fed abandoned the University of Michigan inflation expectations measures the second they became inconvenient with high readings).