星球日报
星球日报|Mar 01, 2026 14:52
[Analyst Warning: This Middle East Crisis Might Be Different, Avoid Buying the Dip Immediately] Odaily Planet Daily News – As Iran launches missiles at U.S. military bases in Gulf cities, airlines suspend flights, and oil tankers carrying petroleum and other products halt passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation has become increasingly chaotic. Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager of the Fixed Income Team at Eastspring Investments, stated that tail risks in the Middle East have increased. The market will reprice, shifting from geopolitical shock to regime risk shock and prolonged conflict, rather than just retaliatory actions, unless Iran signals a willingness to negotiate. Analysts believe a greater risk lies in the market's complacency. The market has consistently assumed that the impact of the conflict will be limited and has dismissed comparisons between this conflict and the 1979 Iranian regime change. Barclays analysts noted that history strongly suggests avoiding chasing rallies during the outbreak of conflicts and instead "selling the news." However, what is concerning is that investors have now become accustomed to the "sell the news" mindset, potentially underestimating the risk of the situation spiraling out of control. It is advised not to buy the dip immediately. If the stock market sees a significant correction, such as the S&P 500 Index dropping more than 10%, a buying opportunity may arise. But now is not the time. (Jin10)
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