March 1 Conflict Event Impact Analysis 1. Energy Market: Direct Impact of Hormuz Strait Blockade Oil Supply Disruption: Around 15% of global oil trade relies on the Hormuz Strait. Following Iran's announcement to close the strait, international oil prices could surge to over $120/barrel in the short term, with Brent crude and WTI crude prices experiencing significant volatility. Energy Alternatives and Market Reshaping: Energy-importing countries in Europe and Asia will face severe supply shortages and cost pressures, accelerating energy transitions and diversification. Meanwhile, the strategic positions of oil-producing countries like the U.S. and Russia will be relatively enhanced. 2. Global Economy: Stagflation Risks Intensify Inflation Pressure Rises Sharply: High oil prices will drive up global inflation rates. The IMF estimates that global inflation could jump from 3.1% to 5.8%, forcing central banks to maintain high interest rates, further suppressing economic growth. Rising Supply Chain Costs: Prices of essential raw materials like energy, chemicals, and fertilizers will increase, pushing up global manufacturing costs. Industries such as automotive and consumer electronics will see their profits severely squeezed. 3. Financial Markets: Risk Aversion Dominates Safe-Haven Assets Strengthen: Prices of safe-haven assets like gold, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasury bonds will rise sharply, while funds will exit risk assets like stocks and bonds on a large scale. Emerging Markets Under Pressure: Capital outflows and currency depreciation pressures will intensify, increasing financial vulnerabilities. Some countries may face debt default risks. 4. Geopolitics: Middle East Order Restructuring Regional Confrontation Escalates: Iran and its proxy forces (such as Hezbollah and Houthi militants) are likely to launch large-scale retaliations, posing ongoing threats to Israeli and U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Major Power Rivalry Intensifies: Major powers like Russia and China will adjust their strategic layouts in the Middle East. Sunni countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will seize the opportunity to reshape regional order, accelerating the process of multipolarization.