Early morning: US and Israel announced Khamenei’s death, $BTC rebounded; Morning: Iran officially confirmed the death, rebound accelerated; Noon: Iran’s second wave of retaliation, $BTC dropped; Afternoon: Iran attacked a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, drop accelerated; Just now: Iran’s foreign minister stated there’s no intention to close the Strait at this stage, rebound started. This is the $BTC trend today. Over the weekend, while other assets are on pause, $BTC has been fluctuating up and down based on Iran’s moves. Iran’s foreign minister’s statement is quite crucial, as it temporarily eases market concerns about the Strait of Hormuz being blocked. Yesterday, Khamenei’s life or death was the focal point of the first wave of US-Israel offensives. Now, whether the Strait of Hormuz remains operational is the key factor influencing the market amid the evolving Iran situation. Here’s the logic: If Khamenei was taken out in an attack, Iran is now in a transitional period before a new Supreme Leader is chosen. During this time, missile attacks on Israel, US bases, and aircraft carriers in the Middle East are happening, but their market impact is limited. The market should now focus on whether the Strait of Hormuz remains operational or is effectively shut down due to intimidation by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. This will determine the market’s outlook on crude oil trends. A sustained surge in oil prices could reignite inflation concerns. The root of the risk. If tonight it’s confirmed that Iran will no longer interfere with navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, it could actually benefit the opening trends of major markets tomorrow. This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh: “Bitget - Trade US stocks: Instant entry, seamless transactions.”