Anthony Pompliano 🌪|2月 28, 2026 15:51
I built an AI tool to predict what happens in financial markets after the US bombed Iran.
This is what @cfosilvia told me will likely occur:
- Crude oil will go sharply higher
- US equities will go sharply lower
- Gold sharply higher
- US Treasuries get higher prices, lower yields
- US dollar will go higher
- Bitcoin & crypto will go lower
- International equities go lower but divergent
- Real estate has negative pressure
- Industrial commodities have mixed reaction
(you can ask her to analyze the impact on your portfolio: http://www.cfosilvia.com)
Silvia also outlined the critical variables to watch over the next few weeks.
👉 The next 72 hours will determine whether this is a 2-week event or a multi-month regime change in markets.
👉 Strait of Hormuz — If Iran attempts to close or mine it, every commodity in the world reprices violently upward. This is the single most important variable.
👉 Escalation vs. Containment — Does Iran's retaliation remain proportional (missiles at bases), or does it attack oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Kuwait? The Iran-backed Houthis have already threatened renewed Red Sea strikes.
👉 Russia and China's response — Russia has called Trump's actions hypocritical. China is Iran's largest oil buyer. Any coordinated response would escalate this beyond a regional conflict.
👉 Speed of resolution — In June 2025, the Israel-Iran exchange resulted in a ceasefire within 11 days. Markets recovered quickly. If this follows that playbook, the selloff is a buying opportunity. If Trump's "regime change" rhetoric means a sustained campaign, we are in a fundamentally different macro environment.
👉 Fed reaction function — The Fed cannot cut rates into an oil shock. If inflation expectations reprice higher, the "higher for longer" narrative returns with a vengeance.
Try Silvia for free: http://www.cfosilvia.com(Anthony Pompliano 🌪)
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