The Impact of War on the Market Today, Israel and the U.S. finally took action against Iran. The market is in panic, but if you’ve studied history even a little, you’ll have an idea of what’s coming. Let’s talk stocks first. Whether it’s the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the 2003 Iraq War, or the 1991 Gulf War, U.S. stocks tend to dip quietly before the war. Once the first shot is fired, they start rebounding quickly. During the Russia-Ukraine war, stocks rebounded on the same day. The general pattern is like this: these localized wars don’t have a substantial impact on the stock market. Now, let’s talk about BTC. When war breaks out, BTC usually follows tech stocks and drops. Once the war expectations stabilize, BTC rebounds. BTC’s censorship resistance and supranational characteristics also give it a buff. Lastly, let’s talk about gold. Currently, gold is rising while BTC is falling. Gold tends to spike at the start of a war due to stress, triggered by activated demand for safe-haven assets. After the war begins, gold usually drops back to its original trajectory. Of course, the above is just a basic framework. In reality, every war, along with the economic situation, monetary policy, and cycle position at the time, is very different. This time, the U.S. and Israel have made it clear they’re targeting Khamenei. This has already gone beyond the scope of nuclear negotiations. Iran is more likely to fight to the death, and the chances of them bluffing openly while retreating secretly have greatly decreased. The war might last longer and be larger in scale than we expected. So, when it comes to bottom-fishing in the crypto market and betting on a rebound, I think the risk-reward ratio isn’t quite there yet.