余烬
余烬|Feb 28, 2026 11:56
The blockchain prediction market is booming, and the Opinion platform is rapidly rising. Removing the dross and retaining the essence: While the speculation of encrypted tokens has fallen silent, real demand scenarios are flourishing and advancing rapidly on the blockchain. Since October 11th, the hype surrounding tokens such as shanzhai, DeFi, and Meme has suddenly cooled down, with less talk and play. Major CEX companies have also turned to promoting US stock tokens, TradFi, and others. But this does not mean it is a 'blockchain scam'. On the contrary, after the cooling of token speculation, blockchain has ushered in another real demand scenario that can break away from token incentives, following stablecoins and DeFi: the prediction market is growing exponentially with the help of blockchain settlement. It is predicted that the overall market trading volume will only be $2 billion in 2024, and will jump to $50 billion in 2025. Currently, multiple institutions predict that the market will continue to grow exponentially to over $150 billion in trading volume by 2026. The prediction market with such huge prospects currently has 95% of its trading volume coming from the top three platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion. Among them, Polymarket and Opinion have more advantages in trust, efficiency, and fund security with the characteristics of blockchain settlement, and are gaining more market share. Opinion, with its diversified prediction themes and blockchain settlement, has captured about 30% of the market share and become one of the top prediction platforms in just 5 months. It is the prediction platform with the shortest development time and the strongest recent momentum. And I feel that there is a bit of "East West divide" between Opinion and Polymarket now. Due to regional differences, there is actually a significant difference in the level of attention paid to events between Eastern and Western users. Polymarket users (Western) tend to have relatively static event structures, while Opinion users (Eastern) tend to have highly fragmented and frequently changing events, with higher requirements for market reaction speed and liquidity. So the trading heat and depth of Opinion on Asian related topics are much better. The diversified prediction themes of Opinion not only include conventional political, economic, and traditional sports event predictions, but also feature event themes such as token pre-market and e-sports. In fact, the participation rate of these characteristic event predictions is not inferior to that of conventional themes, and even more sticky. Opinion is also consolidating and expanding its market share by leveraging its advantages in price differences, depth, and pending orders in these segmented markets. Currently, in the Pre TGE theme of Opinion, there are 16 topics with trading volumes exceeding 10 million regarding whether tokens will be launched or whether TVL predictions will be made. In terms of esports, the topic of guessing the 2026 LPL championship alone has already generated a trading volume of $125 million. You should know that when the trading volume of the LOL S15 Finals topic reached $16.5 million on Polymarket in November last year, major mainstream media outlets reported and analyzed it, predicting that the market would shout "wolf is coming". And in just a few months, the growth of this niche track has easily exceeded 10 times. Another difference between Opinion and the other two of the Big Three is that Opinion will issue coins. As one of the first projects among the three giants to issue coins, Opinion's token OPN focuses on the attention of the entire prediction market, and the growth and expectations of the entire prediction market will be intuitively reflected through OPN. So OPN basically cleared all CEX directly: listed on Binance pre-market contracts, Coinbase roadmap, while Korean exchanges generally follow Coinbase. There will be the World Cup in June soon, and the trading volume of related topics is increasing every day. However, Opinion itself has advantages in price difference, depth, and hanging orders. If we further utilize their characteristics as the only leading prediction platform for issuing coins before the World Cup (token incentives), I can already imagine what kind of height they can push the trading volume and depth to, which may rewrite the market share pattern of prediction. @opinionlabsxyz
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