貝格先生🐢|Feb 27, 2026 01:51
Golden Pit Tracking Series (3): Latest Data from the "Four Major Deep Bear Bottom Hunting Models"
In the blink of an eye, another week has passed, and it's time to update the deep bear bottom fishing model again.
This article is the third in the "Golden Pit Tracking Series", and the data in the article are accompanied by principle explanations,
Friends in need can refer to and research on their own, and if they have any questions, they can directly communicate in the comment section.
Without further ado, let's take a quick look at this week's data :
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AVIV Heatmap
Index Introduction:
➡️ It is a model designed by me personally, based on AVIV as a derivative
➡️ Efficient 'cycle thermometer' for identifying market stages
➡️ AVIV can be regarded as the "profit multiple of active chips" and is an optimized version of MVRV
➡️ AVIV Heatmap is a model designed using the mean regression property of AVIV
➡️ The concept comes from Cointime Economic methodology (proposed by Ark and Glassnode)
Detailed tutorial on indicators: https://(((((((x.com))))/market_gegar/status/1942759255385465186
At present, the upper bound of the blue area on AVIV Heatmap is 63467
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Cointime Price
Index Introduction:
➡️ Cointime Economics, jointly produced by Ark and Glassnode
➡️ Calculate BTC chips using a 'time weighted' approach and conduct fair valuation
➡️ Excluding the influence of ancient and lost chips, only considering chips that are "moving"
Detailed tutorial on indicators: https://(((((((x.com))))/market_gegar/status/1871466038107512855
Currently Cointime Price=51855
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Realized Price
Index Introduction:
➡️ The basic concept of on chain analysis can be regarded as the "average cost of holding BTC in the entire market"
➡️ As shown in the attached figure, in the past, when BTC prices were lower than the Realized Price, they were all cyclical bottoms
➡️ Compared to Cointime Price, it is relatively loose
Detailed tutorial on indicators: https://((((((x.com))))/market_gegar/status/1862031455070941350
The current Realized Price is 54623
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LTH-Realized Price(LTH-RP)
Index Introduction:
➡️ The principle is the same as Realized Price, but the analyzed population is Long Term Holders (LTH)
➡️ Due to the lower holding costs of LTH, LTH-RP is also more stringent
➡️ Compared to Cointime Price, LTH-RP itself has higher engraving power and should be used with caution
Detailed tutorial on indicators: https://(((((((x.com))))/market_gegar/status/1864600434129948724
The current LTH-RP is 41670
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Summary
This article is the third analysis post in the "Golden Pit Tracking Series",
I hope regular tracking of this series can be helpful for everyone in designing their 'bottom fishing strategy'.
Today is the third week of the temporary bottom of the 2/06 sharp decline, and the volatility is about to enter a month,
During this period, BTC's low-level linear pattern gradually released more signals,
For example, the band I publicly shared with you this week for multi trading:
https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2026835169404137648
But from a broader perspective, the current bottoming out period is still too short,
If you are a medium to long term trader, perhaps there is no need to pay too much attention to the current ups and downs;
Maintain patience and allow the chips to fully switch hands in the same area, waiting patiently for the trigger window to be pulled.
The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone
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Related reading resources
The emergence of extremely large quantities: the starting point of a new round of oscillating games
https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2021037913686016212
Mid to late stage of bear market: 'Realized profit&loss' ratio officially falls below 1
https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2025748410079519116
Latest data and bottoming time review of the STH-RP model with deviation adjustment
https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2026474493749989766
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