律动BlockBeats|2月 26, 2026 11:22
[Analyst: Indicators Show Current Market Sentiment Far From Capitulation Zones of Previous Cycles]
BlockBeats News, February 26, crypto market analyst Axel published a report on social media stating that CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin's 'MVRV Z-Score' is currently at -2.28, which has fallen below the bear market bottom levels of 2018 (-1.6) and 2022 (-1.4), placing it in the 'strong bear' zone.
The MVRV Z-Score is a standardized deviation of market value relative to realized market value; negative values indicate that the market price is below the on-chain 'fair value.'
Axel explained that this anomaly can be attributed to the scale of realized market value in the ETF era, where a large influx of institutional capital has raised the cost basis, making the Z-Score more sensitive to price adjustments. If the Z-Score rises above -1.5 and the price holds at $65,000, it will be the first technical confirmation signal of exiting the pressure zone.
However, the NUPL indicator, which measures market sentiment, is currently at 0.197, still in the 'hope' zone and far from the capitulation zones seen in previous cycles. During true capitulation phases (December 2018, March 2020, November 2022), NUPL would fall into the negative zone, where most holders experience net losses. The current level of 0.197 is in the middle of the historical range, still far from the true pain zone. The data shows that market sentiment is weakening but has not yet reached panic levels. Most participants are still in a net profit position (NUPL > 0), but confidence has clearly been shaken.
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