I seem to understand why Jane Street's strategy of hitting the US stock market at 10 am on time can run for so long and accumulate billions of profits Jane Street's actions are not a conspiracy by Wall Street to take away Bitcoin, but rather a repeatable arbitrage/hedging behavior that naturally arises from the structure of Bitcoin spot ETFs and the privileges of AP institutions. one ️⃣ What exactly is' 10 o'clock smash ' -Time: Around 10:00 AM Eastern Time (within 30 minutes after the opening of the US stock market), which happens to be the 9:30-10:00 opening window in New York Time. -Phenomenon: Bitcoin often rises well at night during Asian/European trading hours, and when the US stock market opens, it crashes 1-3%, sweeping away long positions with leverage (often hundreds of millions of dollars suddenly bursting), and then slowly recovers during trading or in the afternoon. -Data evidence: Since November 2025, the proportion of Bitcoin trading volume during the US session has risen to around 55% (previously less than 40%). 60%+of US trading days have this' no news flash drop 'in the first hour. Recently (after Jane Street was sued in the Terra case on February 23, 2026), this pattern suddenly disappeared - on February 25, Bitcoin not only did not fall, but also surged by 3-10%, and the market directly called it "bogeyman gone". two ️⃣ Why can such a 'simple' strategy work for a long time? It may seem simple ("sell at a fixed time → smash the market → buy back at a low price"), but it is actually the result of multiple layers of privilege stacking: ① Only AP (Authorized Participant) can play. Jane Street is one of the four major APs of BlackRock IBIT (the other three being Virtu, JPM, Marex, etc.). Ordinary institutions selling ETFs are required to borrow securities, pay borrowing fees, and are subject to Reg SHO time limits. They have regulatory exemptions: they can hold ETF short positions indefinitely and at no cost (this is what Jeff Park previously called the "grey window"). This allows them to repeatedly create/redeem ETF shares every day without having to immediately buy/sell Bitcoin in the spot market. ② It can be completely hedged with futures without touching spot goods -When IBIT receives capital inflows, they can short ETFs and long CME Bitcoin futures for hedging. -Bitcoin futures have a long-term contango (futures premium), and hedging can also earn carry (basis income). -Result: ETF money came in, but there was no corresponding purchase of Bitcoin spot, and the price was found to be delayed/distorted. -10 o'clock happens to be the most concentrated window for futures/ETF liquidity, and once they sell Algo, they can use their thin order book to amplify fluctuations. ③ Leveraged liquidation is their 'fuel'. Retail/leveraged traders build long positions at night and are precisely harvested as soon as the US market opens. -Smash → trigger chain liquidation → price drops a little further → more liquidation → perfect low draw. -As HFT (high-frequency trading) and market makers, they have always relied on eating volatility premiums to survive, which is equivalent to "self-produced and self sold" volatility. ④ Scale+speed barriers. Jane Street manages assets of over 650 billion US dollars and held IBIT for over 2.5 billion US dollars at one point (13F shows there are still 790 million US dollars in Q4 2025). Their Algo can execute in milliseconds, which ordinary people don't have the capital, speed, or privilege to do. This is not a strategy that anyone can copy, but a monopoly dividend of regulatory privilege and infrastructure. three ️⃣ Why is regulation not directly regulated? This gameplay is essentially a byproduct of the traditional ETF mechanism being transferred to Bitcoin. All APs have the same exemption (not exclusive to Jane Street) to ensure efficient pricing and liquidity of ETFs. Regulators (SEC, CFTC) are more concerned with "obvious manipulation", which is "legal arbitrage+hedging+market making". It was not until Terra's old case pushed Jane Street to the forefront that the market targeted them with the "reverse proof method" of "sudden disappearance of patterns". One sentence summary: It's not Jane Street intentionally smashing, but the entire Bitcoin spot ETF architecture allows APs to use zero cost hedging and futures care at fixed windows every day, decoupling ETF funds from spot prices. What retail investors see as' timed market crashes' is just daily risk management and profit harvesting for them. The recent suspension of the mode and the rebound of Bitcoin actually indirectly confirms the extent of the influence of this mechanism.