These are actually two different perspectives speaking: The logic of the 'buy more BTC' camp: MSTR holds N BTC, but its market cap is only worth 0.896 × N BTC. So, if I spend the same amount of money to buy MSTR stock, the 'corresponding' amount of BTC I get is ~11% more than directly buying BTC (1/0.896 ≈ 1.116). This arithmetic is correct. But the problem is, you can't take away those 'corresponding' BTC. The reality is, what you hold is stock, not BTC. • You don’t have redemption rights or liquidation rights. • The company can continue issuing debt or shares, diluting your stake. • mNAV can drop from 0.896 to 0.5, and your 'discount advantage' could turn into a loss. So both perspectives are correct; they’re just talking about different things: The key difference: Are you betting on mNAV reverting, or calculating the actual value right now? The former is speculative logic, the latter is liquidation logic. Both are valid, just different positions. mNAV < 1 = Corresponds to more BTC, arithmetic is correct, assuming mNAV will revert to 1+. mNAV < 1 = Spending $1 to buy $0.9 exposure is also valid, assuming you can only cash out at market price. |