No money, no money, still no money! Sell, sell or sell!! Rebound or Reverse?? The latest customer cash flow data of Bank of America from February 16th to February 20th, updated weekly, is basically consistent with last week's judgment, but the situation has not improved, but has even worsened. Although institutional users were selling in the previous week, retail investors and hedge funds still had the desire to buy. However, this week it has become apparent that although institutional selling has weakened, hedge funds and retail investors are also selling. Except for the average buying value of retail investors in the past four weeks, everything else is selling. More importantly, although institutional sales were not as strong as last week, the comprehensive sell-off is likely due to a decrease in the overall market's risk appetite. Even hedge funds, which are most fond of trading volatility, have started to stand on the selling side, indicating that the market has gradually shifted from a "institutional selling, individual buying" structure to a "everyone selling" structure. The structure of institutions this week is also very typical, with obvious individual stock selling, but ETFs are actually net buying. In my personal opinion, the ETFs I buy are highly likely to be index ETFs such as the S&P and Nasdaq. This is not because the market is bullish, but rather because investors are choosing to reduce their risk appetite. Swap individual stock risk for more liquid and diversified ETF risk exposure. Institutions are no longer increasing their holdings of risky assets, but have transferred to indices. Compared to individual stocks, investors are beginning to bet on the overall market, possibly because index ETFs have better liquidity, lower impact costs, and are easier to exit when needed. And the withdrawal from individual stocks is very consistent with what we said before, that institutions have no money left, no money to continue driving individual stocks up. Previously, institutions were selling and retail investors were buying, but now retail investors are starting to stop accepting orders and hedge funds are leaving the market. Investors feel very pessimistic about the current environment, and the stock market is still like this. Not to mention cryptocurrencies and BTC, they are even more miserable with lower liquidity. Moreover, even if ETFs are being bought, it does not change the fact that overall funds are still net outflows. The total amount is still flowing out, indicating that the market's "money" has not returned yet, at most it has only transferred funds from higher risk to lower risk. For risk assets, this means two things: Firstly, there may be a short-term rebound, but the height will be suppressed. Because institutions selling individual stocks and buying indices are essentially doing risk management rather than direction, what the market still lacks is incremental funds willing to increase leverage. That is to say, liquidity is still insufficient. Secondly, the structure will become increasingly differentiated. The overall market may not look that bad, but small and medium-sized stocks, thematic stocks, and high volatility assets will be even more uncomfortable because they correspond to the portion of risk exposure that institutions first cut off. Bitcoin is also within this range. That's also why I have always emphasized that 'no money' is the core. It's not that everyone suddenly gave up, but rather that liquidity is too poor and investors' cash positions are still very low. Institutions need to control drawdown while ensuring liquidity, so the result is naturally to continue selling, shrinking, and reducing risk until funds or liquidity are replenished. Some friends may ask, wasn't yesterday's rise very good? In this situation, should the market experience a reversal? It should be noted that today's Bitcoin is essentially the same as yesterday's Bitcoin, and market liquidity will not fundamentally change due to CRCL's financial report. It is more likely to be a rebound caused by emotions and suppressed low prices. Of course, the positive financial report of Nvidia may continue to drive the rise of technology stocks, and BTC, which has a high correlation with technology stocks, should also have the opportunity to rise. However, whether it is CRCL or Nvidia, what they bring is more emotional improvement, whether it is the continued frenzy of AI. For BTC and cryptocurrencies, what they need is real liquidity or the easing of the Federal Reserve. So until this funding structure is reversed, I don't expect the market to rely on emotions to break out of the reversal trend on its own. What can truly change the pace is monetary policy and the path of interest rate cuts, so that there is a chance to restore liquidity. Otherwise, even if individual investors want to take over, they cannot keep up with the size of the institution, and it is very likely that their takeover will become the exit liquidity of the institution. PS: Due to the lag in data from Bank of America, what can be seen is that it has already occurred. The current data will not be available until next week, but this data still tells us that institutions and investors have no money, and they are all selling. The most short-term trend is rebound, and the probability of reversal is not high. Reversal still needs to wait for signals from monetary policy. @bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits