Sudden change in interest rate trend? Commodity currencies lead G10 gains, traders bet on global return to interest rate hike cycle According to BlockBeats, on February 25th, there were signs of a turning point in the foreign exchange market, with the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone, and New Zealand dollar rising by about 6%, 5%, and 4% respectively, becoming the best performing currencies in the G10. Traders are repricing the global interest rate path, betting that major economies may end their interest rate cutting cycle and refocus on fighting inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia has started a new round of interest rate hikes this month, with the latest data showing its preferred "truncated mean" inflation rate rising to 3.4%, strengthening market expectations for another rate hike in May; Norway was priced to raise interest rates in the first half of the year due to an unexpected increase in inflation; The New Zealand dollar also benefits from market bets on interest rate hikes in the coming months. Boosted by the rise in commodity prices such as oil and copper, the three major "commodity currencies" have simultaneously strengthened. Strategists point out that with Australian interest rates higher than the United States for the first time since 2017, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar and the increasing demand for capital diversification, funds are flowing into economies with relatively stable fiscal conditions and commodity exposure. At the same time, although the market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates two to three times this year, some institutions believe that it may remain inactive throughout the year, coupled with the risk of inflation exceeding the 2% target, and the discussion of the "new hawkish era" is heating up.