Wintermute trader: BTC trapped at $64-67k, market has entered macro paradigm shift stage Author: Jjay_dm, Wintermute OTC Trader Compiled: TechFlow Deep Tide Introduction: Wintermute is one of the world's largest cryptocurrency market makers. This market update was written on February 23rd and is currently the clearest description of the current cryptocurrency market situation. It is not just bullish or bearish, but integrates the three clues of AI repricing, deglobalization, and Fed failure into a unified framework, and clearly points out that cryptocurrency assets are currently being sold as the "highest beta growth assets", and whether this trend is a short-term rotation or a true paradigm shift is the most noteworthy issue in 2026. The full text is as follows: Market Update - On February 23, 2026, BTC remained sideways in the range of $64-67k after a wave of liquidation. As a high beta asset trading, its price trend is becoming increasingly similar to some blue chip altcoins. AI disruption and slow deglobalization have triggered the core issues of the crypto market in 2026, and short-term pressures continue to exist. Over the past few months, the market has been driven by micro catalysts, such as single tariff headlines, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and financial report data. Reaction, repricing, and zeroing. But this framework is crumbling. Citrini's recent article crystallizes the emotions that many investors already have but have never expressed clearly into a judgment: we are in the midst of a paradigm shift. The Federal Reserve dominated the market trend for most of this cycle, which is changing. Nowadays, the driving force behind asset prices is slower and more difficult to trade, and it will not dissipate due to a policy shift. Tariffs will not disappear, AI is disrupting the entire industry in real-time, slowing growth while inflation remains sticky. The effectiveness of the tools in the hands of the Federal Reserve in dealing with these forces is becoming increasingly poor, and investors are beginning to question the "Federal Reserve/Trump put options" that previously supported the market - it is this expectation that has supported the excess performance of growth stocks and momentum strategies (excluding cryptocurrencies). Two structured trading logics are running simultaneously and reinforcing each other: AI repricing. The US fiscal year 2025 financial report, combined with Anthropic's recent model release, has forced the market to underwrite AI disruptive risks industry by industry and in real-time. The software moat is being reassessed, growth valuation multiples are being compressed, and the strength of hardware capital expenditures is also being questioned. The easy trading of AI seems to have temporarily come to an end, replaced by a more chaotic and volatile situation. Go global. Trump's shift from IEEPA to Section 122 of the Trade Act after the Supreme Court ruling is the clearest signal yet: tariffs are structural, not temporary. The government will always find a mechanism. The supply chain continues to be fragmented, investment costs remain high, and geopolitical settlement risks are now a permanent feature of asset allocation. Two driving factors are attacking the same thing: the valuation premium of globally integrated and software leveraged growth enterprises. The rotation has already been quite deep. Gold, commodities, industry, metals and mining, defense, and energy are outperforming the market. The value style is effective, and growth stocks are being sold off. There is no clarity in terms of interest rates, and there are no signals that can reverse this trend. The Federal Reserve cannot cut interest rates when inflation is sticky, nor can it tighten when growth slows down. This deadlock itself is the entire trading logic. Since the liquidation chain reaction two weeks ago, the digital asset BTC has repeatedly failed to hit $70k. There has been no rebound buying, which is more indicative of the problem than the price range itself. The price trend is disorderly, the liquidity is thin, the range narrows and lacks directionality. ETH fell below $1900 this week, which is more meaningful psychologically than technically. The support level that ETH really needs to pay attention to is around $1600. Institutional demand has not shown a return even after stabilizing prices - this is in stark contrast to the previous situation within the $85-95k range, when institutional buying was quite evident. The derivatives market also confirms the lack of directional judgment and trading willingness: the basis is at a multi month low, the bearish skewness is increasing and still rising, and the open interest contracts have continued to decline since October. The traffic on the trading platform tends to be in the selling direction, but a noteworthy signal emerged mid week: high net worth individuals briefly showed a willingness to selectively buy altcoins. In the overall defensive environment, this is a small but noteworthy spark of confidence, but it fades very quickly. The second half of the week became chaotic again, with any buying intention quickly fading, indicating that the market is not yet ready to reward the behavior of early layout. The marginal operations are still protective rather than offensive. Our judgment was slow at first, then sudden. The market feels that various narratives are being integrated into a paradigm shift picture. At present, cryptocurrency assets are being sold off as the highest beta growth assets - falling along with technology stocks and momentum strategies - while the current world is characterized by rising risk premiums for growth assets and the inability of the Federal Reserve to act. The sustained net outflow of ETFs confirms this, which is a short-term reality. But from a broader perspective, a more interesting question is: how strong is the stickiness of this paradigm? The narrative about stagflation, deglobalization, and the Fed deadlock is starting to feel less like a short-term catalyst and more like a real repricing of the macro context - a pattern that favors hard assets, commodities, and value rather than growth. Cryptocurrency assets are currently at a disadvantage in this transaction. That being said, we have seen similar situations before. Over the past decade, the multiple growth panics that triggered the market's rotation ultimately reversed as risk appetite returned and the market regained momentum. The difference this time lies in the structural characteristics of AI repricing and deglobalization. But it's still too early to call it a paradigm shift. How strong the stickiness of this narrative is, is the most important question for the cryptocurrency market in 2026- we currently do not have an answer.