律动BlockBeats|2月 25, 2026 00:09
[Institutions: Forecast Market Annual Revenue Expected to Reach $10 Billion by 2030]
BlockBeats News, February 25th, according to a report released Monday by U.S. bank Citizens, forecast market annualized revenue has climbed from approximately $2 billion in December to over $3 billion currently, and is expected to reach $10 billion by 2030. Analysts pointed out that accelerating trading volumes, strengthened market structures, and early institutional participation indicate that this trajectory is replicating the early evolution of listed derivatives and digital assets.
Forecast markets have rapidly evolved from niche gambling into a sophisticated trading platform ecosystem aggregating probabilities of real-world events. Leading players, including CFTC-regulated Kalshi and Polymarket, which covers politics, sports, and economics, are attracting widespread attention from mainstream financial and regulatory institutions.
Analysts believe that asset classes typically follow a path from retail-driven liquidity to professional market makers, and eventually to institutional capital entry—forecast markets are evolving along this trajectory. January trading volumes grew by over 40% compared to December, with February maintaining a similar growth rate. Sports events remain the primary source of liquidity, but the scope of activity is expanding to macroeconomic, political, and regulatory events—areas that better align with institutional needs.
Forecast markets enable investors to hedge risks from discrete events such as inflation surprises or merger approvals without relying on proxy tools like index futures or options, thereby reducing basis risk. By isolating specific outcomes, they provide precise risk transfer mechanisms and real-time capital-weighted probability signals.
Institutional participation is beginning to emerge through data integration, liquidity provision, settlement standards, and regulatory clarity. As infrastructure matures, the scale of direct trading is expected to expand. Although current revenue primarily comes from trading, bank analysts predict that as the ecosystem develops, data, research, and financing services will bring new growth opportunities.
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