星球日报|2月 24, 2026 23:18
[Citizens Bank: Prediction Market Annual Revenue Could Reach $10 Billion by 2030]
Odaily Planet Daily News – A new report from U.S. Citizens Bank indicates that the prediction market is experiencing rapid growth. The current annualized revenue of the industry has exceeded $3 billion and is expected to reach $10 billion by 2030, becoming a new asset class. The report shows that trading volume in prediction markets continues to rise. In January of this year, market trading volume increased by more than 40% compared to December, and February maintained a similar level, despite the usual expectation of a decline after the end of traditional sports seasons. Analysts believe this trend reflects the transition of prediction markets from niche gambling tools to mature financial markets.
Citizens Bank believes that the growth in trading volume, improved market structures, and the initial participation of institutional investors are key factors driving the industry's development. Currently, some institutions have begun entering the market as data users and liquidity providers, laying the foundation for broader institutional adoption. Prediction markets allow traders to price and hedge risks associated with discrete events such as election outcomes, interest rate decisions, or merger approvals. Compared to proxy tools like index futures or options, prediction markets can reduce basis risk and provide real-time probability signals.
Analysts point out that the development trajectory of prediction markets is similar to that of early derivatives markets and the digital asset industry, transitioning from retail-dominated liquidity to participation by market makers and institutional funds. Representative platforms currently include the regulated event contract exchange Kalshi and the decentralized prediction market Polymarket. The industry as a whole is gradually moving toward integration with mainstream financial systems.
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