比特币橙子Trader
比特币橙子Trader|Feb 24, 2026 12:02
VC is dead, the era of capital empire begins These days, many people are still reminiscing about the era when "boutique VCs made decisions and changed the world". A small team, millions of dollars, a term sheet, bet on a garage entrepreneur, and then wait for the birth of a legend. It sounds very romantic. But the real world has already turned the page. No curtain call. No farewell. The old rules are simply overwritten by the new rules. VC is still there. Entrepreneurship is still ongoing. Money has never left either. What has changed is the power structure. Venture capital is no longer just a game of judgment, It is becoming a competition for resources, networks, and system capabilities. Who is smarter is no longer enough. The position is determined by who can win the transaction. one ️⃣ After software engulfs the world, the cost of entrepreneurship has changed Twenty years ago, to be an Internet company needed servers and bandwidth. Ten years ago, there was a need for cloud services and a growing budget. Today, computing power, chips, data centers, and energy may be needed. AI companies burn billions of dollars on GPUs. Automated laboratories require heavy asset infrastructure. Defense technology, robotics, and energy networks are all devouring capital. OpenAI、Anthropic、xAI、Anduril、Waymo —— These companies have been capital intensive war machines since day one. Entrepreneurship is no longer just about writing code. It is becoming more and more like building a national level project. When the ceiling of company size jumps from $1 billion to $1 trillion, The scale of financing will inevitably expand synchronously. The increase in VC volume is not ambition. It is adapted to reality. two ️⃣ Winning a deal is more important than picking the right company The past venture capital was more like revolving sushi. Turn the project around and the investor will choose one. Judgment is everything. Now, the best companies are not waiting for you to choose. They are choosing who can enter. The founder has more term sheets. The number of investment institutions has exploded. Excellent projects are hunted down early on. Entering the cap table is already a competition in itself. Resources, recruitment, customer channels, government relations, media influence, talent network—— These abilities are determining who can win the deal. If you can't get in, even the most accurate judgment is meaningless. The threshold for the game has been moved forward. three ️⃣ Venture capital is evolving from "funds" to "institutions" The goal of traditional funds is simple: Earn the most care with the least number of people. The new generation of institutions has a second goal: Establish a competitive advantage with compound interest. Recruitment Network. Global policy resources. Public relations and public opinion influence. Enterprise customer entrance. Engineering and Safety Support Team. These things will not be written on the term sheet, But it determines whether the founder can win the war. YC was one of the earliest organizations to prove this. It not only provides funding, but also offers structural advantages. A16z further industrializes this model: Platform team, talent network, media matrix, policy outreach, enterprise connectivity. Capital is beginning to platformize. And the platform will devour single point capabilities. four ️⃣ Why is VC getting bigger and bigger? Because the scale of winners is also expanding. In the past, there were about a dozen companies with annual revenues exceeding one billion US dollars. There are about a hundred now. Unicorns were once rare. Today, the trillion dollar market value is assumed to reappear. The company remains privatized for a longer period of time. The financing rounds are deeper. Capital demand is more sustainable. The private market has been able to support the growth of giant enterprises. There is no surplus of funds. Just the company has become more expensive. five ️⃣ The middle zone is being squeezed The future venture capital structure is becoming more and more like a dumbbell: On one end, it is a large-scale platform based institution. On the other end, there are highly specialized small-scale boutique funds. The middle layer is the most dangerous. The scale is not large enough to provide system advantages. Not specialized enough to establish irreplaceability. When the founder must win in the war, They will choose people who can provide weapons. Not just someone who delivers bullets. six ️⃣ The founder is also changing the game rules Keeping a company private for a longer period of time means a longer investment window. Continuous entrepreneurs are more mature, reducing the difficulty of early judgment. The capital market is more efficient, and high-quality projects are identified faster. Founders have more choice than any other era. They are no longer looking for checks. They are looking for a winning rate. The person who can help them win the most has a place. seven ️⃣ The power structure of VC is converging towards power law Venture capital has always followed a power-law distribution. In the future, this curve will be steeper. Top institutions will receive the best companies. The best companies bring the best returns. Capital and talent continue to gather towards these institutions. This is a positive feedback loop. It's not a conspiracy. It is a structural result. eight ️⃣ VC is not dead, but Romanticism is over VC still exists. The entrepreneurial ecosystem is still expanding. Technology is still changing the world. The narrative of the old era is no longer valid. The story of how small funds make decisions that change the world will still happen, But it is no longer the mainstream path. Real power is concentrating towards capital platforms. The ability to integrate resources is replacing single point judgment. The system advantage is becoming a new moat. Capital is no longer just capital. It has become infrastructure. nine ️⃣ Next decade: Capital Empire vs Ultimate Professionalism The world will not only have giants. Large institutions and highly specialized small funds will coexist and rely on each other. Giants provide scale and resources. Small funds provide insights and edge innovation. But the middle ground will become increasingly crowded and difficult. The industry has not disappeared. Just entering a new structural cycle. finally VC is not dead. The era driven by intuition and legendary stories has just faded away. Today's venture capital is more like an infrastructure war. Scale, resources, and system capabilities are reshaping the power landscape. When entrepreneurship becomes a national level project, Capital is no longer just partners. It is evolving into an empire. And the empire never operates solely on judgment.
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