There are probably two main macro risk points, I need to remind you again. 1. The expectation of interest rate cuts is fluctuating, prolonging the duration of high interest rates. The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement in January kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% -3.75%, And the speech mentioned that inflation is still high, which actually sends a clear signal of hesitation in interest rate cuts. The overall trend of total inflation and core inflation in the January CPI data is still downward, but the details are: -Core CPI growth stubbornly remains at 0.3% month on month -Housing prices increased by 0.2% compared to the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% -Excluding energy, service items increased by 0.4% year-on-year and 2.9% year-on-year The key sub sectors that are most headache inducing for the Federal Reserve have shown inflationary stickiness, at least I will focus on these three in the next CPI release. 2. Structural tightening of US dollar liquidity. Including the previously mentioned fiscal bond issuance and TGA (General Account of the US Treasury) balance fluctuations, as well as the Federal Reserve's management of reserves, these are all hidden risks beyond the benchmark interest rate. Institutional management of these three major components simultaneously plays a role, which is called structural tightening. Looking at the latest quarterly funding estimate (QRA) from the US Treasury Department in February, it can be seen that the Treasury Department's financing has a huge blood sucking effect: in the first quarter of 2026, the net financing of privately held tradable bonds is expected to reach $574 billion (assuming a TGA cash balance of $850 billion at the end of the quarter). In the refinancing statement on February 4th, out of the $125 billion financing scale, approximately $34.8 billion was new cash drawn from private investors, rather than simply debt rolling renewals. The other two have not yet found exact data support, but the three major components mentioned above are continuously and significantly consuming market funds. According to this logic, the estimated financing scale of the Ministry of Finance, the US tax period, and the probability of fiscal revenue and expenditure are the most significant indicators affecting current liquidity, apart from interest rates.