qinbafrank|2月 24, 2026 05:34
1. When the steady state is broken, a new steady state will definitely emerge. The inevitability of a new steady state is a law of human social development, which is in line with the theory of "creative destruction" in economic history. Technological change destroys old structures, but unleashes resources for innovation and a new balance. For example, agricultural mechanization replacing farmers has given rise to urbanization and modern service industries. AI may be similar: after liberating "hands and brains", humans shift towards high-value and high emotional activities.
2. People only see unemployment and chaos, while ignoring the prosperity brought by long-term innovations such as trains and airplanes, such as space infrastructure (using AI to reduce launch costs, optimize computing), and biological immortality research (AI to accelerate drug discovery). In the early stages of the Industrial Revolution (18th and 19th centuries), the steam engine did cause large-scale unemployment (such as textile worker protests) and social unrest (such as the Luddite destruction of machines), but ultimately led to an explosion in productivity. From steam to electricity, and then to railways, automobiles, and airplanes, these innovations have created new industries and positions (such as engineers and pilots), overall enhancing human well-being. Historical data show that although the technological revolution delayed the emergence of benefits (for example, it took decades for steam engines to significantly improve productivity), it always brought a net positive: for example, the digital revolution (computers, the Internet) was also worried about unemployment at the beginning, but it created millions of jobs such as software development and e-commerce.
At present, AI development (such as agency tools and generation models) is repeating this pattern: from 2025 to 2026, productivity has been improved, entrepreneurial threshold has been lowered (AI tools have reduced start-up costs by 70-80%), new enterprises have emerged, and new jobs will also be created. And it greatly enhances and expands the individual's abilities and efficiency.
3. The impact of AI on employment opportunities is essentially the squeezing of human production attributes. Human beings need to reposition their functions. When people are not primarily responsible for production or even do not need production, "usefulness" will become cheap, and human scarcity will shift towards fun: production attribute compression → distribution structure reconstruction → consumption attribute release → human value reassessment.
If human labor time decreases and leisure time increases, people will invest their time in entertainment, consumption, content, games, shopping, and other fields. AI will not replace all friction and consumption, otherwise humans will become vegetative. The logic here is that time will be redistributed, not eliminated. Workers shift from repetitive tasks to high-value activities (such as creative or supervisory AI)
This is not the end of the world, but a transitional and painful period of reconstruction.
4. AI brings great improvements in productivity and efficiency, and humanity is likely to enter the era of abundance. The deflation (price drop) brought about by a significant increase in productivity actually enhances purchasing power and makes consumers richer. The collapse of intermediaries mentioned by Citrini is actually the transfer of funds from rent seekers to end-users, driving a new consumption cycle. For example, reducing real estate commissions from 2.5-3% to below 1% is not a market disruption, but rather an increase in net income for sellers and a saving for buyers on new expenses such as decoration or furniture. Similarly, the decrease in DoorDash rates has benefited restaurants, drivers, and consumers, resulting in a surge in transaction volume (such as in the Mastercard case where rates decreased but revenue ultimately reached a new high). History has proven that technological deflation (such as the computer revolution) always brings growth, not collapse
5. Productivity determines production relations, and the rapid development of AI will definitely bring about changes in the entire social system and governance structure. These changes have led to the emergence of a new distribution system. It has the potential to promote the transformation of society towards a Norwegian (welfare state based on sovereign wealth funds) and Saudi (resource rent allocation model) style distributive system. The government can hedge by implementing macro policies such as fiscal transfer payments and strengthening the welfare system.
6. Of course, it's not that everything ahead is smooth sailing, and a huge period of pain is inevitable. There is a smooth road ahead, but we must overcome thorns. This is clear realism. We see long-term prosperity in the end, but history has repeatedly proven that the transformation process is full of pain, subversion, and amplified inequality. We cannot ignore the short-term/medium-term costs just because of 'ultimate prosperity'.
The benefits of productivity improvement first flow to capital and high skilled individuals (tech giants, AI experts), leading to "great decoupling": stagnant wages and skyrocketing productivity. Low skilled/medium skilled workers have been hit the hardest, with a widening income gap that has also sparked social dissatisfaction and unrest.
That is to say, as mentioned in point 5, the government will inevitably make adjustments in policies. Large scale retraining, expansion of unemployment insurance, AI tax funding for UBI or sovereign policies, such as the Norwegian sovereign fund model.
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