龚有柴GongYouchai|Feb 23, 2026 11:34
The key variables for U.S. stocks over the past couple of days boil down to three things:
1) Interest rates: The January FOMC kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%. The market is still waiting to see if 'inflation cools down enough.'
2) Inflation: The latest CPI from BLS shows January's monthly data is still climbing (around 0.3%-0.4%), meaning the 'immediate sharp rate cut' scenario is shaky.
3) Policy shocks: After the Supreme Court struck down part of the tariffs, the market breathed a sigh of relief; but then came a new 'global unified tax rate' proposal, essentially swapping one uncertainty for another, keeping risk appetite suppressed.
In terms of trading, I’m focusing on two main themes:
AI theme: Meta expanding AI infrastructure → Nvidia and similar computing power chains remain the 'most favored certainty' for capital.
Defensive theme: If tariffs/policies keep fluctuating, cash flow-stable, pricing-power-strong leaders are more resilient.
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