Carving a sword on a boat, based on past cycles, When is the best time to buy the dip for BTC? Let’s stack some points first. The perfect dip-buying opportunity is definitely in the range where macro and systemic risks have been fully released—this is mainly judged based on experience. 1. After BTC hits a previous high and starts declining, it usually takes 12 to 18 months for the market to consolidate. Buying the dip near the end of this range tends to have a higher success rate. 2. The window for positioning is typically 18 to 8 months before the next halving. No need to elaborate—history has consistently proven this point. 3. Although Wall Street money has already entered the market, a 70% to 85% retracement from BTC’s previous high is still a hard indicator for entering the absolute value zone. Buying the dip with less than a 60% retracement carries significant risk. 4. Never rush to buy the dip when the first institution or project collapses. There could be a chain reaction of failures afterward. Only when institutions and project teams start shifting to survival mode can you cautiously test the waters with small amounts. 5. When market sentiment shifts from extreme panic to complete silence, it’s actually a good opportunity for phased dip-buying. If you’re dollar-cost averaging, this is a good way to gradually enter the market. 6. As long as macro liquidity stops deteriorating, you can start buying the dip slowly. Waiting for the money printer to turn on before buying is just chasing the top. The above events are likely to happen simultaneously. However, if you’re a long-term BTC holder, it’s best to ensure you have sufficient cash flow and gold reserves for the next two years. Escalating regional wars and intensified geopolitical conflicts may have an even greater impact than the Fed’s policies.