Every bull market has two stages: the first half is expansion, and the second half is consumption. In the first half, profits continued to accumulate and funds became more and more courageous as they fought; In the latter half of the year, profits began to be realized, and the willingness to take on orders gradually decreased, leading to the market entering the most intense game zone. Standing at the current point in time, looking back at the trajectory of realized profits may help us better understand the position of this cycle than simply looking at prices. (Figure 1- Profit trend achieved during bull market cycle) Observation 1: Last cycle: The peak of realized profit (30d sma) appeared in March 2021 (marked 1), followed by a higher price but lower peak of RP (realized profit) in November 2021 (marked 2). The decreasing amount of funds willing to buy at high levels is a sign of declining momentum (also due to increased reluctance to sell chips). Afterwards, the price continued to decline and RP continued to decline until it became "unprofitable", a process that took 12 months. This cycle: The peak of realized profit (30d sma) appeared in December 2024 (marked 1), followed by a higher price but lower peak of RP (realized profit) in July 2025 (marked 2). If we look back, this is the "bull peak range". Although the price can still break through the previous high afterwards, the RP is getting lower and lower, so it should be regarded as a "rebound" and the potential energy continues to decline. This process has been ongoing for 7 months now. But it is clear that it has not yet reached the point of being 'unprofitable', with RP still having a daily average of $460 million. If there is profit, there will be power to distribute, and the bearish power has not been fully consumed. From this perspective, it can also be considered that the current downward trend is not yet complete. (Of course, considering the differences in market value, volatility, and position structure, this cycle may not necessarily need to 'drop to the same absolute value as the previous round' to be considered the bottom) Observation 2: From December 16, 2018 to November 8, 2021, BTC increased from $3300 to $67000, with a cumulative realized profit of $491.9 billion; From January 4, 2023 to May 6, 2023, BTC increased from $16000 to $125000, with a cumulative realized profit of $847.9 billion; It can be seen that the profit release scale of this cycle has significantly increased, indicating a significant increase in participation scale, liquidity volume, and high price chip turnover intensity. With the continuous increase of market value and overall cost, this will inevitably put forward higher requirements for the "capital flow" in the next cycle. Higher profit margins and higher cost ranges are constantly raising the threshold for market participation. This also means that for BTC and the entire cryptocurrency market to continue expanding, the required incremental funds will far exceed any previous cycle.