1. We do not know whether this whale’s large Bitcoin deposits to exchanges are for actual selling, collateral, or another purpose. Since we cannot confirm the intent, what we can analyze is the pattern and the timing. That said, I believe the probability of actual selling remains high. 2. The reason I highlighted this whale last December was based on its past record. This whale has consistently sold at key market levels. It moved near the tops of the current cycle and before the COVID crash major turning points in the market. That is why I considered this pattern impossible to ignore. It is also important to note that the Bitcoin was clearly deposited directly to exchanges. 3. This time as well, the whale continued selling near the recent top and kept depositing even in the $80K~ $90K range. That is why I mentioned it. The market reaction followed afterward. From a probability perspective, this strongly suggests selling pressure. In the past, whenever similar activity appeared, it was followed by large downside volatility. 4. For this pattern to be offset, whales would need to use the so-called “fear zone” shown in the data as a real buying opportunity. However, we do not see that happening now. 5. There is one difference compared to the past. This whale’s pattern is now widely watched and constantly repeated in the community. That creates a new variable. 6. Because of this, I think the market may continue to move sideways for some time, or even create short-term upward moves that give hope. But once the market becomes comfortable again, there is a high chance that another strong wave of selling could appear.(mignolet)