Talk about Trump's new Article 122 and the possible subsequent movement rhythm. It was Trump's response to the Supreme Court's ruling that came so soon. Look at the official documents of the White House: 1) Using the 122 clause based on the 1974 Trade Act discussed in last night's tweet, a 10% tariff will be imposed on goods imported into the United States, which will officially take effect on the 24th; 2) Exemption from taxes for some key minerals, energy, fertilizers that cannot be met domestically in the United States, some agricultural products, passenger cars, and aerospace products; 3) The previous equivalent tariffs will no longer be in effect officially; Various countries found that they had been negotiating trade agreements with the United States for almost half a year, but ended up feeling lonely. Of course, according to Trump's character agreement, the subject cannot be changed, and some terms are expected to be changed. It is highly likely that countries will hold their ground and observe the domestic game situation in the United States. 1. What is Article 122? Possible rhythm of subsequent actions 1) Trump became the President of the United States who levied tariffs by invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This provision allows the President to impose tariffs of up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days in the event of a "large-scale and severe" balance of payments deficit, balance of payments imbalance, or "imminent significant" depreciation risk of the US dollar. This clause can be implemented without prior investigation. The biggest limitation of this clause is that the maximum tariff rate is only 15%, and there is a 150 day implementation period limit, which can only be extended with the approval of Congress. Therefore, this clause can only serve as a short-term option and is difficult to support the long-term and large-scale tariff system that Trump is seeking; 2) Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Its advantage lies in the fact that the scale of tariffs is not limited by law, and the investigation is led by the US Department of Commerce, giving the government high control over the investigation results. Its disadvantage is that it cannot be implemented immediately, and the Department of Commerce must first complete the investigation and submit a report to the President within 270 days. Moreover, it targets specific industries rather than the entire country, and its coverage is not as broad as IEEPA. 3) Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act authorizes the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), under the direction of the President, to impose tariffs on trade measures of other countries that are deemed discriminatory against American businesses or in violation of international trade agreements, with no upper limit on the tariff rate. Its disadvantage is that the program is complex. USTR must conduct investigations, typically requiring consultation with foreign governments and soliciting public opinions. The differences between these bills lie in the triggering conditions for authorization (national security vs. industry harm vs. unfair practices vs. payment balance), procedural rigor (length of investigation time), and intensity of restrictions (tax rate/time limit). Sections 232 and 301 are more flexible and suitable for Trump's broad tariff agenda. The rhythm of Trump's subsequent tariff is: first, use Article 122 to collect temporary tariffs within 150 days. Then, at the same time, the Ministry of Commerce and the Office of the Trade Representative launched investigations, and subsequently used Section 232 and Section 301 to further follow up and fix the 122 tariff. 2. The most concerned issues in the market regarding tax refunds are several aspects: 1) Last night, the Supreme Court ruling only rejected the tariff measures, but did not specify how to handle the tariffs already imposed. Observe the progress of subsequent trials by the International Trade Court; 2) Trump didn't seem to want to refund taxes at all. He said early this morning that the Supreme Court ruled that no tax rebate was raised at all, suggesting that he would not recommend it easily. It is best to prepare for lawsuits that may last for two years or even longer; 3) Even if the International Trade Court can support the tax refund in subsequent proceedings, it is highly likely that it can only rule to refund to the specific plaintiff. If the US government does not introduce an automated tax refund process, each importer is likely to have to go through a litigation process that takes several years to obtain a tax refund. 3. Trump's situation The IEEPA he is using is the weakest legal foundation (but with the widest coverage of industries), and Trump has many legal framework options to use. Although the coverage of other provisions is not as large as the IEEPA, the legal foundation is very solid. If Trump does not restart the tariff threat, he basically looks like a lame duck. Last night, I talked about that this was the most important political setback in Trump's second term. If he gave in, he would have a great chance of political ruin. He must fight back hard. Yesterday we also talked about the possibility of trading tax refunds in the short-term market to increase profits. However, once Trump starts to take the initiative to deal with it, the market will have to face the uncertainty of new policies. There are several legislative bases used, which will change over time. The tax refund has not yet occurred and it will take a long time. It may gradually be realized that there is no hope for tax refund, and the expectation of profit boost will also decrease. Bitget buys US stocks: instant entry, silky trading http://(bitget. com)/markets/stocks