Not sure if there will be a tax refund yet, but if there is, it’s definitely not a good thing in the short term. Most of the money has already been spent, and based on the data I’ve seen, it’s close to $300 billion by now. If there’s a tax refund, it means the U.S. will need to issue additional debt, which would drain liquidity from the short-term market. From the perspective of risk markets, the best outcome would be to declare the tariffs invalid but not issue refunds (this is doable). Other incentives, like preferential policies or tax cuts, could be used as compensation. Overall, declaring the tariffs illegal is definitely good for risk markets in the medium to long term. At most, there might be some short-term turbulence, but in the long run, it reduces a lot of unnecessary trouble. After that, it all depends on the Fed and the midterm elections.