Will Yang|2月 20, 2026 15:40
I noticed that this mind-blowing news hasn’t actually triggered a major market rebound.
Here are the key points:
1️⃣ The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the President has no authority to impose additional tariffs.
2️⃣ This ruling is final and cannot be appealed.
3️⃣ $150-175 billion in collected tariffs are now subject to refunds.
The mainstream view is that the market is starting to trade on this logic: "Tariff removal → Lower inflation → Rate cut expectations heating up." But honestly, this logic is way too linear.
The $150-175 billion in tariff refunds won’t immediately turn into market liquidity. Most likely, this money will flow into the real economy rather than financial assets. Plus, the entire cycle of injecting it into the real economy will take at least 6-9 months. The impact on inflation won’t be that quick. At this point, patiently waiting for the transmission chain to gradually complete is the right move.
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