Murphy|Feb 20, 2026 04:27
Resonance between chip structure and whale behavior: Does 6.7w constitute a phased demand anchor?
Good New Year, my friends! I'm back again. I stopped work for 3 days during the Spring Festival holiday. Have you missed me? If you have eaten too many melons these days and feel a little tired, then you can come to my place for a change and have some staple food as a cushion.
I only have 'market, data, and trading' here. Since you've rested well, let's regroup and set off!
The first article of the Year of the Horse observed a set of short-term positive data:
According to URPD data, BTC finally saw a significantly higher "chip column" relative to its surroundings around $67000, with 48.5w BTC trading at this point.
(Figure 1-URPD-2026.220)
This is the first appearance since BTC experienced a rapid decline on January 29th, which also means that large funds are beginning to intervene here and bet on the temporary bottom range (Figure 1). It is obvious that this is another opportunistic resistance made by the bulls at a specific position.
The last time a similar situation occurred was around $87000 during December 25 (Figure 2).
In the downward trend of bull to bear in this round, the biggest difference from previous cycles is the "tactics" adopted by the bulls. If you keep tracking the changes in chip structure, you will still remember the previous positions of 11.2w, 10.7w, 8.7w, etc.
(Figure 2-URPD-2025.12.25)
Faced with the overwhelming excess distribution, the bulls seem not eager to eat up the opponent in one breath, but constantly consume the bearish momentum through the method of "digging trenches and blocking". When the market sentiment is extremely fragile, the liquidity provided by a large number of panic stocks fleeing is the moment when bulls quietly complete their fundraising.
The only interval that was skipped in the middle was the middle position of the "double anchor structure" that I had originally expected, that is, the 7.4-7.6w interval did not form a "chip column", which surprised me (perhaps something unknown happened).
(Figure 3- Accumulation Trends of Different Coin Holding Groups)
We can also see changes in the chip structure corresponding to the behavior of the whale group: when BTC falls into the 6-70000 USD range, the whale group holding 1k-1w BTC enters an accumulation mode. Similarly, this situation also occurred between December 25 and January 26
At that time, the current 100-1k whale population absorbed potential energy in the first round of decline from October to December, and then continued to accumulate in larger whale populations ranging from 1k to 10k, ultimately providing BTC with temporary support in the $8-8.5w range (rebounding to $9.8w).
Based on the above data observation, my personal opinion is:
The fact that some whales have raised funds on the left side does not mean that this is an absolute bear bottom, but with the intervention of large funds, it can definitely play a buffering role in the downward trend.
From the perspective of transmission path, a small portion of demand should first emerge to slow down the downward trend, in order to repair confidence on a larger scale, and finally usher in an effective rebound (or reversal).
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