貝格先生🐢|2月 20, 2026 01:59
Golden Pit Tracking Series (2): Latest Data from the "Four Major Deep Bear Bottom Hunting Models"
Continuing the quote below, as I mentioned in this post,
Next, I will update the latest data of the 'Four Big Deep Bear Bottom fishing Models' once a week.
This article is the second in the "Golden Pit Tracking Series", and the data in the article are accompanied by principle explanations,
Friends in need can refer to and research on their own;
The road to bottom fishing is long and arduous, but you are not alone :
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AVIV Heatmap
Index Introduction:
➡️ It is a model designed by me personally, based on AVIV as a derivative
➡️ Efficient 'cycle thermometer' for identifying market stages
➡️ AVIV can be regarded as the "profit multiple of active chips" and is an optimized version of MVRV
➡️ AVIV Heatmap is a model designed using the mean regression property of AVIV
➡️ The concept comes from Cointime Economic methodology (proposed by Ark and Glassnode)
Detailed tutorial on indicators: https://(((((((x.com))))/market_gegar/status/1942759255385465186
At present, the upper bound of the blue area on AVIV Heatmap is 63759
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Cointime Price
Index Introduction:
➡️ Cointime Economics, jointly produced by Ark and Glassnode
➡️ Calculate BTC chips using a 'time weighted' approach and conduct fair valuation
➡️ Excluding the influence of ancient and lost chips, only considering chips that are "moving"
Detailed tutorial on indicators: https://(((((((x.com))))/market_gegar/status/1871466038107512855
Currently Cointime Price=51898
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Realized Price
Index Introduction:
➡️ The basic concept of on chain analysis can be regarded as the "average cost of holding BTC in the entire market"
➡️ As shown in the attached figure, in the past, when BTC prices were lower than the Realized Price, they were all cyclical bottoms
➡️ Compared to Cointime Price, it is relatively loose
Detailed tutorial on indicators: https://((((((x.com))))/market_gegar/status/1862031455070941350
The current realized price is 54830
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LTH-Realized Price(LTH-RP)
Index Introduction:
➡️ The principle is the same as Realized Price, but the analyzed population is Long Term Holders (LTH)
➡️ Due to the lower holding costs of LTH, LTH-RP is also more stringent
➡️ Compared to Cointime Price, LTH-RP itself has higher engraving power and should be used with caution
Detailed tutorial on indicators: https://(((((((x.com))))/market_gegar/status/1864600434129948724
The current LTH-RP is 40893
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Summary
This article is the second analysis post in the "Golden Pit Tracking Series",
I hope regular tracking of this series can be helpful for everyone in designing their 'bottom fishing strategy'.
Since the temporary bottom of BTC's sharp drop to 60K on 2/06,
It has been about two weeks now, and the market has entered a dry and volatile phase as scheduled;
As mentioned in my previous analysis post (see the summary at the end of this article for details),
This kind of oscillation is estimated to last for at least 1-3 months, after both long and short sides have fully exchanged their chips,
Only then can we once again emerge from the trend market.
The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone
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Related reading resources
The emergence of extremely large quantities: the starting point of a new round of oscillating games
https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2021037913686016212
For the first time since 2022: BTC returns to the blue line support zone once again
https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2021399682606661737
The 'Golden Pit One Step Away': The PSIP Periodic Bottom Signal is within reach
https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2020675527812792811
PSIP Bottom Signal "Extra Edition": Another Perspective on Evaluating the Bottom
https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2024313705262121308
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