PANews|Feb 20, 2026 01:05
[Former Goldman Sachs Strategist: The Dollar's Decade-Long Rally Logic Faces Reversal, 'Non-Farm Payrolls' May Turn from Positive to Negative]
According to Jintou's report, former Goldman Sachs strategist Robin Brooks believes that the dollar's decade-long trend of rising based on U.S. monthly non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations is coming to an end. This marks a 'regime shift,' where traders will sell the dollar when U.S. labor market data is strong. He stated that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and if the Fed adopts policies to cap long-term nominal yields, strong non-farm payroll data could reduce real yields, weaken the appeal of U.S. assets, and ultimately lead to a weaker dollar.
Brooks said, 'The market may harbor doubts about Trump's policies because they have been inconsistent and unpredictable. The Federal Reserve has also been repeatedly attacked.' He was referring to President Trump's repeated calls for the central bank to cut interest rates. He added, 'All measures are aimed at lowering interest rates, and I think this is exactly what the market is subconsciously considering.'
As evidence of this phenomenon, the stronger-than-expected January employment report released on February 11 had almost no positive impact on the dollar; instead, it produced the opposite effect.
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