Phyrex
Phyrex|2月 19, 2026 13:15
The first large-scale capital outflow after 2022 is happening!! The main reason for the unfavorable upward trend of the US stock market, which has been mentioned earlier, is that institutions have run out of money. Cryptocurrencies, especially BTC and ETH, not only have their purchasing power decreased, but they have also experienced the largest capital outflow since 2022. Starting from the end of January 2026, funds have been frantically withdrawing from the cryptocurrency market, accompanied by the sell-off of BTC and ETH. Compared to the bear market in 2022, this withdrawal is clearly faster and more rapid, more like a systematic retreat of risk appetite across the board, rather than a gradual emotional breakdown. It is interesting that we have not seen the collapse of earlier investors until now, even for investors holding prices above 100000 yuan, they are still very stable at present. The round of capital outflows in 2022 was a wave after wave, with rebounds and gasps mixed in between. However, this time, from the data, we can see that the 30 day net outflow directly hit the deep red range, indicating that the market is not changing hands, but a net retreat. Moreover, the structure of this round of fund withdrawal is very unhealthy. The net positions of BTC and ETH (orange line) have clearly turned negative, indicating that core assets are being reduced. The net position of stablecoins (purple line) has not synchronously strengthened significantly, which means that the funds are not buying at the bottom, but directly withdrawing and leaving the market. That's why the feeling of this round of decline is more direct. It's not that someone is taking over after the drop, but that the funds taking over are also shrinking. The impact of this matter on the subsequent pace is also very direct. When net outflows enter this acceleration stage, the market will enter a typical negative feedback loop. When prices fall, risk management triggers a reduction in holdings, leading to a decrease in liquidity and making it easier for prices to be breached, which then continues to trigger a reduction in holdings. So it's difficult to see a rebound in the short term when there's too much decline, but without new capital coming in, occasional positive driven rebounds can also be seen as liquidity outflows. Finally, I would like to emphasize that if this round of outflows is only a cryptocurrency issue, it usually manifests as funds migrating within the chain, such as from knockoffs back to BTC, from risky assets back to stablecoins, but the current signal is more like a cross market risk clearance. On the US stock market, institutions have no money, and on the cryptocurrency market, funds are leaving directly, indicating that liquidity is still retreating and all risk assets are shrinking synchronously. Only a small portion of "safe haven" assets may be favored by funds, while assets that require high risk appetite will be affected. In this environment, it is never just emotional repair that can determine the turning point, but two things: 1. Has the speed of capital outflow started to slow down and show signs of reversal. 2. Has the net position of stablecoins and core assets returned to the positive range. (Funds return to stablecoins) @bitget VIP, Lower rates and more generous benefits
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