[Federal Reserve Researchers Say Kalshi Data Can Provide Real-Time Reference for Policy Making] Odaily Planet Daily News – On February 12, three researchers from the U.S. Federal Reserve System published a paper stating that data from the prediction market platform Kalshi can more accurately reflect macroeconomic expectations in real time and should be incorporated into the Federal Reserve's decision-making reference framework. The authors of the paper include Federal Reserve Chief Economist Anthony Diercks, Research Assistant Jared Dean Katz, and Johns Hopkins University researcher Jonathan Wright. The study compared Kalshi data with traditional surveys and market-implied expectations, concluding that Kalshi can provide high-frequency, continuously updated probability distributions to measure risk-neutral probabilities of macroeconomic indicators such as interest rate decisions. The researchers noted that Kalshi responds more quickly after major policy statements or economic data releases. However, the report emphasized that Federal Reserve research papers are internal discussion materials and do not represent official policy positions. (Cointelegraph)