After two weeks, the situation in Iran has escalated: 1. The second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has made some progress, but the two sides are still far apart on key issues. Iran is expected to submit more specific plans in the next few weeks, and Trump will continue to evaluate the progress of the negotiations. The White House refused to make a clear statement on whether to set a deadline for negotiations or consider military options. 2. The deployment of US military forces in the Middle East is still ongoing. In the past 48 hours, a large number of aircraft have been transferred to US bases in Europe and the Middle East: 48 F-16, 12 F-22, 18 F-35A, 6 E-3G Sentinels, 1 E-11A BACN, and 40 KC-46A or KC-135 refueling aircraft. Especially E3G and E11-A, E-3G is responsible for overall air command and early warning, while E-11A ensures smooth real-time data links for ground/air forces. On the naval front, the Ford aircraft carrier battle group is crossing the Atlantic, approaching the Strait of Gibraltar, and is expected to appear in the Mediterranean in a few days. At that time, the US military will have two aircraft carrier battle groups and four to five hundred planes in the Middle East, and the overall deployed military force will be larger than during the "Midnight Hammer" operation in June last year. 3. Now it seems that Trump has the priority of negotiation, but it is ready to start. Trump repeatedly stressed that "diplomacy is the first choice". White House spokesman Karoline Leavitt said that "if Iran is wise, it should reach an agreement with the Trump administration as soon as possible". But the differences between the United States and Iran are still significant: the United States demands a complete cessation of uranium enrichment and restrictions on ballistic missiles, which Iran still finds difficult to accept. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that detailed proposals will be submitted in the next two weeks, leaving a window for negotiations. From a personal perspective, the focus of the US Iran negotiations has actually shifted from the nuclear issue to ballistic missiles. Iran's nuclear facilities were damaged to some extent during last year's Operation Midnight Hammer, and the nuclear process is still hindered. And ballistic missiles are currently Iran's trump card for survival, with an additional 300 produced per month. Even if Iran makes concessions on the nuclear issue, it is difficult for Netanyahu to accept that the ballistic missile issue has not been negotiated. Placing ballistic missiles poses the greatest threat to Israel than the nuclear issue. It does not rule out that Natta went on a rampage alone and dragged Trump into the water. The core focus is on the progress of negotiations on nuclear/missile issues. The military momentum itself will create "momentum" and deterrence, and Trump is more inclined to exchange it for "better agreement". If Iran compromises (or at least shows sincerity) within two weeks, the action is likely to be delayed; On the contrary, if Iran continues to be tough (as Khamenei has publicly rejected core demands), the probability of a strike increases significantly. 4. Once action is taken in the future, combat operations may last for several days to weeks. The targets of the attack may cover multiple levels - from targeted strikes against weapons facilities and mid-level officials, to "decapitation operations" that may overthrow existing regimes. The primary goal is to destroy Iran's missiles, launchers, drones, and drone factories to prevent retaliatory strikes against the US military and Israel. In terms of whether to fight or not, I share the same view as Ole Sloth Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank: "I am a skeptic and still doubt that Trump will take the risk of pushing up domestic oil prices in an election year that prioritizes affordability Bitget buys US stocks: instant entry, silky trading http://(bitget. com)/markets/stocks