xiyu
xiyu|Feb 19, 2026 03:33
The most awkward thing for Ethereum right now is: the L2 scaling solutions it created are now backfiring on itself. L2s are siphoning off transactions, causing gas fee revenue on L1 to plummet, and the deflationary narrative for ETH has completely failed. The 'ultrasound money' story they've been telling for years is now unsupported by the data. But if you think it's done for, think again—staking rate is sitting at 28.9%, the developer ecosystem is still the largest, and no one can break Solidity's moat in the short term. So Ethereum is in a really conflicted state right now: the long-term fundamentals are intact, but the short-term narrative has collapsed, and it can't break above $1960. My take is to wait for L2 value return mechanisms (like based rollups) to truly take shape before rushing to chase the highs. Is Ethereum being saved by L2s or hollowed out by them? Here are a few signals worth watching: Will the Ethereum Foundation adjust blob fees to reclaim revenue from L2s? That’s a critical move. And then there’s the staking rate—currently at 29%. If it breaks 35%, DeFi yields will get squeezed hard, and that’s another issue entirely. In the short term, if you want to play, staking + re-staking with EigenLayer might be one of the few opportunities left. The deflationary narrative is temporarily invalid but not permanently gone—once L2s scale to a certain level, the total compensation effect will kick in. The question is, how long will that take?
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